Page:EB1922 - Volume 32.djvu/160

unobtainable. It is important to emphasize this uncertainty, for it is the fact that exact measurements of general price changes cannot be made in times of disturbance, and indeed it is difficult even to define the quantity we wish to measure; tendencies can be observed clearly, but only rough measurements can be made and fine comparisons lead to error. The maximum level was reached in March 1920 by the Economist index number, in April by the Statist, in July by the Board of Trade. By Dec. 1920 the Board of Trade index was back at the level of the beginning of 1920, that of the Statist at the level of July 1919, and that of the Economist at the level of May 1919. The difference is mainly due to the varying proportions given to cereals and textiles, which had fallen rapidly, and to meat and minerals which had fallen little in the three numbers.

Table IV. (from the Monthly Bulletin of Statistics of the Supreme Economic Council, vol. ii., No. 5) shows the index numbers for several countries.

Table IV.—Index numbers of wholesale prices.

	United  Kingdom	Canada	U.S.A.	France	Italy	Japan	Sweden	Netherlands	Denmark	Norway	Australia
	Statist	Official	Bradstreet's	Statistique  Générale	Bacchi	Bank of  Japan	Svensk  Handelstidning	Official	Finanztidende	Okonomiks  Revue	Official
1913	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	—	—
1914	101	100	97	103	95	95½	116	106	134	100	100
1915	126	109	108	141	133	97	145	149	149	—	141
1916	159½	134	130	190	200	117	185	233	206	—	132
1917	206	175	172	263	306	148½	244	298	284	—	146
1918	226½	205	204	341	409	196	339	398	292	—	170
1919	242	216	204	358	366	239	330	306	340	—	180
1920
Jan.	289	248	227	489	504	301	319	293	—	334	203
Feb.	306	253½	226	525	556	314	342	289	—	344	206
Mar.	308	258	225½	557	619	322	354	290	—	351	209
April	313	261	226	591	679	301	354	296	—	354	217
May	306	263	216	553	659	272	361	297	—	371	225
June	301	258	211	495	615	248	366	297	383	384	233
July	299½	256	205	498	613	239	363	301	385	411	234
Aug.	298	244	196	504	632	235	365	290	394	418	236
Sept.	293	241	184	528	660	231	362	288	398	427	230
Oct.	282	234	171	504	662	226	346	283	403	422	215
Nov.	263	224½	148	463	658	221	331	260	374	404	208
Dec.	244	214	138	437	634	206	299	233	341	377	197

The prices are of course measured in the currency of each country. In every case there is a fall in the last months of 1920.

(II.) Wholesale Prices of Selected Commodities.—When we come to commodities separately, the measurements can be made more exactly subject to the two following qualifications. During the war period the ordinary sources of supply were so disturbed that pre-war kinds and qualities were no longer in the market (in the Economist index number only 19 out of the 44 quotations included were not subject to some modification of kind); and a statement of prices is generally taken as meaning the price at which a purchaser can obtain the goods he desires and at which a merchant is willing to sell, but in the time of control and rationing these conditions did not obtain, and the price was fixed by other conditions than those which influence a free market.

Table V. is based on the prices tabulated in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, July 1920, pp. 640-5, by the editor of the Statist. The index numbers have been recast, the average price in 1913 being taken as 100 for each commodity; the totals have been obtained by grouping together the separate entries on the same plan as in the original, but the change in base year affects the results, which thus differ from those given in Table II. in the same way as if the weights had been changed.

Table V.—Statist index numbers. Averages for each year.

	1913	1915	1916	1917	1918	1919	1920
Vegetable food
Wheat
English Gazette	100	170	184	239	229	229	253
American	100	164	185	229	215	205	253
Flour, Town made white or G.R.	100	160	172	192	153	153	216
Barley, English Gazette	100	137	189	238	217	278	330
Oats, English Gazette	100	162	180	270	258	274	301
Maize, American mixed	100	175	223	304	332	334	383
Potatoes, good English	100	120	197	239	183	254	311
Rice, Rangoon	100	162	206	309	320	313	501
Total	100	156	192	252	238	255	319
Animal food
Beef: Carcase, London Central meat market
Prime	100	134	150	194	191	200	231
Middling	100	139	157	206	211	220	257
Mutton: Carcase, London Central meat market
Prime	100	121	151	185	176	184	233
Middling	100	126	154	195	196	203	258
Pork: Carcase, London Central meat market	100	129	160	200	234	233	306
Bacon, Waterford	100	121	143	192	237	248	311
Butter, Friesland	100	118	161	181	208	212	253
Total	100	127	154	193	208	214	264
Tropical food
Sugar
West-Indian*	100	151	255	332	347	404	611
Beet*	100	‡ 180‡	‡ 239‡	‡ 267‡	279	361	689
Java	100	172	244	301	327	400	687
Coffee
East India*	100	97	96	117	159	180	183
Rio*	100	84	94	109	130	215	210
Tea
Congou, common*	100	167	160	338	418	270	a 225a
Indian, good medium†	100	127	130	185	194	182	114
Average Import*	100	122	125	§ 162§	166	171	165
Total*	100	143	182	241	269	300	432
Total Food	100	143	186	228	233	250	322

It is at once evident that the various prices have not followed the same course; the extremes in 1919 are tin, whose price rose only 28% in 6 years, and Russian flax, where the rise is 323%. This great divergence of itself shows that the general index number cannot have great precision; but in the absence of means of improving it, we cannot do better than take this number (shown in the line “Grand Total” in Table V.) as measuring the general inflation of wholesale prices.

The prices as recorded are the resultants of at least five nearly distinct forces, viz. the general inflation of prices, the conditions of supply and demand for the separate commodities, the control of supply, the control of prices, the change of quality. In 1915