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864
UNITED STATES


Fig. 1.

Index Numbers of Farm Crops, Live Stock, Commodities and Farm Labour Each Year from 1913 to 1921 Inclusive.

The two outstanding facts are that in every year from 1913 to 1919 the farm crops index stood higher than any of the others, and that from 1913 to 1918 the farm wage index stood as low as or lower than any other.

Tables III., IV., and V. are based upon data prepared by the Bureau of Crop Estimates, and published by authority of the Secretary of Agriculture.

Table III.—Index Numbers of Farm Prices of Crops.

The index numbers of average prices to farmers of the United States of 10 leading crops (wheat, corn, oats, barley, rye, buckwheat, potatoes, hay, cotton, and flax) represent about four-fifths of the value of all crops and may be regarded as representing the trend of all crop prices. (Base 100 = average for 12 months of 1913.)

 1921   1920   1919   1918   1917   1916   1915   1914   1913 
 Jan. 1 
 Feb. 1
 Mar. 1
 Apr. 1
 May 1
 June  1
 July 1
 Aug. 1
 Sept.  1
 Oct. 1
 Nov. 1
 Dec. 1
 129  241  221  214  149  105  103  108   90
 123  252  211  220  159  114  114  107   91
 120  255  209  234  168  112  117  109   92
 113  271  220  234  183  114  117  109   92
 104  294  238  229  228  116  122  110   94
 109  309  249  221  236  118  120  113   98
 106  304  252  222  235  118  113  112  100
 109  268  267  228  250  120  113  112  102
 109  239  258  238  227  131  108  115  111
—  202  235  235  225  133  104  111  113
—  163  227  219  212  145  101  103  109
—  135  230  215  205  152   98  100  108
Average  112  244  235  226  206  123  111  109  100


Table IV.—Index Numbers of Farm Prices for Live Stock.

Index numbers of average prices to farmers of the United States, for live stock. (Base 100 = average for 12 months of 1913.)

 1921   1920   1919   1918   1917   1916   1915   1914   1913 
 Jan. 1 
 Feb. 15
 Mar. 15
 Apr. 15
 May 15
 June  15
 July 15
 Aug. 15
 Sept.  15
 Oct. 15
 Nov. 15
 Dec. 15
 120  173  192  179  121   92   94  100   91
 117  177  192  180  134  100   92  103   95
 123  178  200  186  152  107   92  105  101
 112  181  214  193  166  112   94  105  104
 109  177  218  197  168  114   97  104  101
 104  175  213  194  167  114   98  103  102
 109  176  222  195  163  114   97  105  103
 113  172  221  202  168  114   96  109  102
—  174  191  206  182  119   96  108  102
—  166  174  196  186  114   99  102  102
—  147  169  190  177  115   92   97   99
—  121  164  191  181  116   89   94   98
Average  113  168  197  192  164  111   95  103  100


Table V.—Index Numbers of Commodity Prices, Excluding Farm and Food Products.

Based upon the Bureau of Labor index numbers of wholesale prices of all commodities from which were deducted the commodities representing the foods, and farm products group. (Base 100 = average for 1913.)

 1921   1920   1919   1918   1917   1916   1915   1914   1913 
 Jan.  
 Feb.
 Mar.
 Apr.
 May
 June
 July
 Aug.
 Sept.
 Oct.
 Nov.
 Dec.
 205  246  191  173  153  109   94   98  102
 194  257  192  175  152  112   95   97  102
 186  263  186  179  160  115   93   98  100
 180  272  184  182  162  118   93   97  100
 177  278  187  184  170  118   95   96  100
 173  277  196  188  178  120   94   96  100
 171  272  205  192  182  118   96   96  100
 169  271  217  193  177  119   95   95  100
—  267  221  196  175  124   96   96  100
—  257  225  195  166  120   98   93  100
—  234  230  198  168  140  101   92   99
—  220  237  196  169  148  105   94   97
Average  182  259  206  188  168  122   96   96  100

A study of the diagram (fig. 1) confirms the evidence from many other sources that farmers engaged primarily in crop production were reasonably prosperous from 1913 to 1916 inclusive, and that during 1917, 1918 and 1919 they enjoyed unprecedented prosperity followed by two years of heavy losses; the high prices of the early months of 1920 having broken before the products could be marketed and the cost of commodities and farm wages remaining high. It also shows that the live stock grower was only just able to keep pace with the increasing cost of necessary commodities, and but little ahead of the steadily rising farm wages that he had to pay. The conditions of agriculture on Dec. 1 1921, as shown by Tables I., II., III. and V., and fig. 1, indicate that never before in the history of American agriculture had the farmers been confronted with so serious a situation. Unless the prices of what the farmer must sell could be brought into proper relation with prices of what he must buy—commodities and labour—agricultural production would necessarily be so greatly reduced as to bring about a serious shortage of food and textile products, for farmers cannot continue to produce crops at a loss not only of their time, but also of their money.

When, however, the agricultural situation is more closely studied it becomes apparent that even though a proper relation could be restored between the prices of farm products, farm labour, and the commodities the farmer has to buy, many of the farmers would be still unable to operate their farms profitably.

During the decade 1910-20, throughout the first half of which the farmers enjoyed normal prosperity and throughout the latter half of which their prosperity was the greatest ever enjoyed by American farmers, the rural population increased only 5.4% while the urban population increased at the rate of 25.7%. That is to say urban population increased nearly five times as rapidly as the rural population, increased movement to centres showing that farm life and farming had come to be disliked, notwithstanding their new advantages: improved roads, rural free mail delivery, telephones, automobiles, farm electric lighting plants and modern water and heating systems, all developed rapidly during the ten years in question.

Although there were 86,864 or 1.4% more farms in the United States in 1920 than in 1910, there were 23,627 or .6% fewer farm owners. Of the 3,925,090 farms operated by their owners in 1920, 41.3% were mortgaged as against only 33.6% in 1910.

The value of the land and buildings of mortgaged farms was $6,330,236,951 in 1910, and in 1920 $13,772,729,610, an increase of 117.6%. In 1910 the mortgaged indebtedness was $1,726,172,851; in 1920 $4,012,711,213, an increase of 132.5%. The increase in value ranged from 21% in New Jersey to 480% in Arizona. The increase in mortgaged indebtedness ranged from 10.2% in Rhode Island to 625.7% in Montana. The increase per cent in mortgaged indebtedness by geographical divisions was as follows: New England 56.8; Middle Atlantic 45.5; East North Central 101.0; West North Central 136.3; South Atlantic 161.8; East South Central 194.6; West South Central 154.0; Mountain 379.4; Pacific 215.6.

The average value of land and buildings on all mortgaged farms in 1910 was $6,289, and in 1920 it was $11,536, an increase of 117.6%. The average debt per farm was $1,715 in 1910 and $3,361 in 1920, an increase of 132.5%. The debt per cent value was 27.3 in 1910 and 29.1 in 1920, the figures being based on 1919 values. These declined and debts increased during 1920 and 1921, and at the end of 1921 it was believed that changes would continue in the same direction, until a shortage of food should increase prices.

There was difference of opinion as to the significance of the heavy increase in mortgaged indebtedness. The published reports of the Bureau of Census do not indicate at what time during the decade this increase took place, nor the purposes for which the money represented by the mortgages was used: whether as purchase money for the land upon which it was placed, for buildings, or other improvements upon the land, for farm equipment, or for the purchase,

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