CHAP. XXV.
How far Fortune influences the Things of this World; and how far she may be resisted.
I know that several have thought, and stil think, that all sublunary events are governed either by Divine Providence or by chance, in such a manner that human prudence can effect nothing against events; so that it is quite unnecessary for us to trouble ourselves, either as to preventing or directing them.
The revolutions of which we have been and are still witnesses, seem to support this opinion, from which I have at times some difficulty to defend yself; particularly when I consider how far those events surpass all human conjecture: yet as we confessedly possess a free will, it must, I think, be allowed that chance does not so far govern the world as to leave no province for the exercise of human prudence. (Vide Appendix G.)
I would compare the blind power of chance to a rapid river, which, having just overflowed its banks, inundates the plain, uproots trees, and sweeps all before it in its destructive progress, without our being able to oppose any resistance to its fury; which however does not, when it has returned within its natural limits, hinder us from constructing dykes and banks to prevent a recurrence of similar disasters. It is the same with Fortune; she exercises her power whẹn we oppose to her no barrier.
If we cast our eyes on Italy, which has been the theatre of these changes, and which has provoked them, we shall find it to be a defenceless country. If, as is the case with Germany, Spain, and France, she was placed in a situation to resist her enemies, she would not have been invaded by foreign powers, or at least their irruptions would have been less considerable.
I will not farther pursue the general means of triumphing over bad fortune, but shall confine myself to a few particular modes. I will previously observe that it is not uncommon to see princes fall from prosperity to adversity, without our being able to attribute their fate to any change either in their conduct or their eharacter; which I think may be deduced from the causes of which I have already copiously treated, viz. that princes who rely too much on Fortune almost necessarily fall when she abandons them.
Those princes who adapt their conduct to circumstances are rarely unfortunate. Fortune is only changeable to those who cannot coform themselves to the varying exigencies of the times: a proof of what I advance is, that in the diversity of causes followed by those who are in the pursuit of riches or glory, one prosecutes his object at random, the other with caution and prudence: one employs art, the other force; one is impetuosity itself, the other all patience; means by which each may severally succeed. It also happens that of two who follow the same route the one arrives at his object and the other does not; and that of two others whose dispositions are diametrically opposite, and the means they employ as different, they shąll equally prosper; which caprice in events can only arise from the times being favourable or otherwise to the line of conduct they severally pursued.
Circumstances also frequently decide whether a prince conducts himself well or ill on any particular occasion. There are times when an extraordinary degree of prudence is necessary; there are others when the prince should know how to trust some things to chance; but there is nothing more difficult than for him on the spur of the occasion to change his conduct and character; sometimes from not being able to resist his old habits and inclinations, at others from want of resolution to quit a course in which he had always till then been successful.
Julius II. who was of a fiery and violent disposition, succeded in all his enterprises; doubtless, because a prince of such a character was best adapted to the circumstances under which the church was then governed by this pontif. Witness his first invasion of the territory of Bologna in the life of John Bentivoglio, which gave great umbrage to the Venetians and the Kings of France and Spain, but none of them dared to Interfere. The first, beeause they did not feel them selves strong enough to cope with a pontiff of his character; Spain, because she was engaged in the conquest of Naples; and France, besides having an interest in keeping fair with Julius, wished still to humble the Venetians; so that she, without hesitation, granted to the Pope the succours which he asked of her,
It was thus that Julius II. succeeded in an enterprise in which prudence and circumspection had been altogether unseasonable. He would unquestionably have failed if he had given Spain and the Venetians, time to reflect on what he was doing, and France, the opportunity of amusing him by excuses and delays.
Julius II. displayed in all his enterprises the same character of violence; and his successes have in that respect fully justified him: but he did not perhaps live long enough to experience the inconstancy of fortune; for had an occasion unexpectedly occurred in which it would have been necessary to act with prudence and circumspection, he would infallibly have been ruined, in consequence of that impetuosity and inflexibility of character which wholly governed him.
From all these circumstances we must conclude, that those who cannot change their system when occasion requires it, will unquestionably be prosperous while they glide with the stream of Fortune; but when that turns against them, they are ruined, from not being able to follow that blind goddess through all her variations.
Besides, I think that it is better to be bold than too circumspect; because Fortune is of a sex that likes not a tardy wooer, and that repulses all those who are not ardent; she declares also, more frequently, in favour of those who are young, because they are bold and enterprising. (Vide Appendix H.)