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21. Population projections indicate an increase in global population from 4.8 billion in 1985 to 6.1 billion by 2000, and to 8.2 billion by 2025. (See Table 4–2.) More than 90 per cent of this increase is expected in developing regions. Large differences exist among countries in these areas, and the momentum of population growth is higher in Africa than in Latin America or Asia. In some developing countries. such as China, population growth rates are already well below 2 per cent and are expected to fall below 1 per cent by the beginning of the next century.[1]
22. Reflecting the 'momentum' of population growth, long term UN projections show that at the global level:
- if replacement-level fertility is reached in 2010, global population will stabilize at 7.7 billion by 2060;
- if this rate is reached in 2025. population will stabilize at 10.2 billion by 2095
- if however, the rate is reached only in 2065, global population in 2100 would be 14.2 billion.[2]
23. These projections show that the world has real choices. Policies to bring down fertility rates could make a difference of billions to the global population next century. The greater part of the differences between the three variants is accounted for by South Asia, Africa,and Latin America. Hence much depends on the effectiveness of population policies in these regions.
2. Changes in Mobility
24. The number of people in Europe, Japan, North America, and the Soviet Union quintupled between 1750 and 1950, and these regions' share in world population increased sharply over this period.[3] By the latter part of he 19th century, there was growing concern about population pressures in Europe. Migration to North America, Australia, and New Zealand helped to some extent. At its peak between 1881 and 1910, permanent emigration absorbed nearly 20 per cent of the increase in population in Europe.[4]
25. Today, however, migration is not a major factor determining population distribution among countries. Between 1970 and 1980 permanent emigration as a percentage of population increase fell to 4 per cent in Europe and was only 2.5 per cent in Latin America. The corresponding percentages in Asia and Africa were very much lower.[5] Thus the option of emigration to new lands has not been and will not be a significant element in relieving demographic pressures in developing countries. In effect, this reduces the time available to bring population balance with resources.
26. Within countries, populations are more mobile. Improved communications have enabled large movements of people, sometimes as a natural response to the growth of economic opportunities in different places. Some governments have actively encouraged migration from densely to sparsely populated areas.
