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A Study in Probabilities

riage—April 16, 1884, to be exact—while assistant manager of the ship supplies house of Briquet Frères, he absconds with sixty thousand francs. It is discovered that he kept a mistress at Rouen. He is believed to have gone to America—to have been smuggled out of the harbour by a friendly American captain. Surely, it is not impossible,” he added, “that this friendly American captain was Thompson.”

“Very few things are impossible,” I commented; I began to be impatient with Godfrey. He was permitting his prejudice against Tremaine to warp his judgment.

“Well, we’ll keep that for a hypothesis, anyhow,” and he turned to the third clipping. “This,” he continued, “shows us that he indeed came to America. It is dated July 23, 1885, and states that a young Frenchman and a tramp skipper named Johnson—ah, you see?”

I did, indeed, see—here was the first appearance of Tremaine’s zombi—of his familiar devil. I looked at Godfrey with the liveliest admiration. This constructive reasoning was something which I, certainly, was quite incapable of.

“So that J on Thompson’s arm was the initial of his real name,” observed Godfrey. “I thought it was—it had been there a long time, and an effort had been made to erase it. After a man has started on the crooked path, he doesn’t want any tattoo marks on him—they make identification too easy. For Johnson, then, we’ll hereafter read Thompson.”

I nodded; I was beginning to be convinced.

“Well,” continued Godfrey, “Tremaine and