on Blanche Bay. The location of this naval base would be so central that neither Port Darwin nor any other Australian base could be compared with it. The naval base in Blanche Bay would be a new Malta in the heart of the Pacific. The Washington Conference forbade the British the establishment of this base, but the Washington treaty expires in 1931.
The future will show how these systematic preparations for war on the Pacific will end. It is difficult to make any predictions because of the complicated relations on the Pacific coasts. Yet two phases in the development of the Pacific conflict can be predicted with tolerable certainty. The first phase is the struggle of the United States against Japan. While England did tear up its treaty with Japan at the Washington Conference, it made no alliance with the United States. It kept its hands free and only made the reservation that in case of complications on.the Pacific a preliminary conference would be called of the four powers which signed the Washington treaty. This position enables England, in case of a war, to maneuver and to orientate itself in accordance with the situation. On the one hand it takes over the role of an arbitrator who sells his neutrality at the highest possible price, on the other hand, it is the one that eggs on others into war in order, when the foes clash, to seize the fruits of victory for itself. And the Washington treaty gives England the chance, in case of a war between the United States and Japan, of either remaining neutral or else participating in the war either on the side of Japan or the United States.
The present grouping of forces makes the second possibilty at least likely. It is now clear that England's intervention on the side of Japan would have the immediate result of its losing Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Japanese mastery of the Pacific subjects these dominions to a constant threat of attack. And if Canada, Australia or New Zealand feel them-
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