census of population of 191 1, and by considering the Board of Trade " Statistical Abstract of Information regarding the Armies at Home and Abroad" (No. 28-Cs-i Feb. 1917).
The Z8 return (supplied by employers to the Board of Trade)
indicates that the employed male population in the occupations
covered by the Z8 return, was at July 1914, 10,610,000.
Analysis of -phe total occupied male population shown in the
Occupa- , , ..
tioas. census of population was approximately 4,060,000. The Board of Trade estimates that, allowing for the normal increase of population, and for emigration, this last number would have increased by July 1914 to 14,350,- ooo, leaving a balance of 3,750,000 occupied persons not included in Z8 occupations. It is further estimated that of these, 2,150,000 were engaged as follows: -
Occupation
Males Occupied
Agriculture in Ireland Mercantile marine Clergymen, physicians, literary and other professional occupations Sundry minor commercial occupations Costermongers, hawkers, and sundry dealers. Domestic service (outdoor and indoor) Gardeners (except market gardeners) covered under agriculture in Great Britain Other occupations Total
850,000 125,000
270,000 240,000 130,000 315.000
160,000 60,000
2,150,000
An examination of these categories will indicate that enlist-
ment (except in the case of domestic service) would probably be
inconsiderable, and it may fairly be estimated at not more than
half that in the occupations covered by Z8. The total enlistment
for the 10,610,000 covered by that return is 4,896,000. If half the
proportion enlisted in these occupations is accepted in respect
of the 2,150,000 males occupied in the miscellaneous occupations
not covered by Z8, a total of about 450,000 is reached, giving a
grand total of 5,346,000.
There remains the further 1,600,000 males necessary to com- plete the estimated total of 14,350,000 at July 1914. The major- ity of these would be employers and persons working on their own account, the one-man businesses from which in the nature of the case the proportion of enlistment would be comparatively small, and if 250,000 is added for this class this probably does not err in the low side. A grand total therefore of 5,596,000.
There are, however, still to be taken into account the un- occupied males, of whom there were approximately 200,000 in July 1914, and a considerable number of boys at school in 1914 who enlisted without entering an occupation. The proportion of enlistments here would in the nature of the case be high, and 250,000 would not be an excessive figure.
There is thus reached a total figure of approximately 5,850,000 for the whole of the United Kingdom. This will include re- servists and territorials called to the colours at the beginning of the war both for the navy and army, but excludes men already serving with the regular forces.
This total can be checked by reference to the Board of Trade estimate for enlistment shown in the " Statistical Abstract of Information regarding the Armies at Home and Abroad." This shows the number of men enlisted in the armies up to the Armistice to be 4,970,000. To this must be added approximately 500,000 men called up to join the colours from the army reserve, special reserve, and pre-war territorials, giving a total not far short of 5,500,000. Similar figures are not available for the navy, but it is a very reasonable conjecture that the numbers would bring the total near the estimate of 5,850,000.
When this enormous total is envisaged, we see the task before
those engaged on carrying on the output of munitions and the
maintenance of vital services. Clearly if this 5,850,000
for'w'a/* k a( i k een a net l ss the problem would have been
Service. practically insoluble. It was not, however, a net loss,
as will be shown immediately, but over and above the
operation of factors tending to alleviate the difficulty, the
principal steps taken, apart from the intensive use of existing
labour, were the following:
(a) The diversion of labour from less vital work, a diversion effected as to the greater part not so much by Government action as by the operation of first patriotic impulse and then economic stress.
(b) The return of men from the forces for causes other than physical disability.
(c) The introduction of new sources of labour, i.e. Belgian, Dominion, and finally enemy prisoner labour, on the one hand and the enormous influx of female labour.
If we take the causes entirely independent of Government action, which reduced the total, the two most important elements are (i) men returning from the forces to civil work, and (2) the natural increase of the population. Under the first head it is probable that the total reached was in the neighbourhood of 700,000. The figure, however, includes both men discharged for disability and men returned from munitions. The number in the latter class is dealt with below.
As to the causes of increase not directed by Government action, these may be set out in the following tabular form, which is necessarily based on a comparatively rough estimate for the occupations covered by the ZS returns: Increase consequent upon natural growth of male
population 695,000
Net immigration 25,000
Boys entering employment earlier than usual 90,000
Older men who deferred retirement or who returned to
work after retirement .... 200,000
Males on strike or lock-out July 1914 . 40,000
Males out of work on an average on any one day July 1914 250,000 Men returned to civil work from the forces . . . 700,000
2,000,000
To these must be added, in respect of the 4,000,000 not covered by Z8, approximately 100,000, making a total of 2,100,000. This figure is in a large measure conjectural, but if it errs, it probably errs (though not considerably) on the small side. As a matter of fact the actual tables based on Z8 returns show a total of 2,366,- ooo. The difference between the two figures may be due to:
(1) Inclusion among enlistments of a certain number of men who joined the forces more than once.
(2) Inclusion among enlistments of a certain number of men who would normally have had to be replaced owing to death, disablement, etc., and for other causes, e.g. in consequence of their having become employers.
(3) Possible slight exaggeration by employers of numbers enlisted.
(4) Possible slight exaggeration of total male employment owing to omission of some firms which were shut down.
The true figure is probably therefore somewhere between the two, but for purposes of estimating the total net loss the higher figure of 2,366,000 is taken.
To get the figure for the net loss on the 10,610,000 covered by the Z8 returns, there must therefore be subtracted from the 4,896,000 who had enlisted as at July 1918 2,366,000. An exam- ination in the next place of the women employed in industry indicates that at July 1914 the number employed was 3,276,000, and that this had risen by July 1918 to 4,935,000, a net increase of 1,659,000 females. Of these additions to the ranks of industry analysis is precarious, but it is probable that not less than 75% were women who had left work or who entered upon it for the first time and that the remaining quarter were drawn largely from domestic service.
If the male and female replacements are added together the net numerical loss to industry is reduced to the comparatively small figure of 871,000. But this does not in the least represent the real loss to industry. In the first place, while the decrease in the number of males employed represented 23-8%, the increase in females was 50-6%. Without attempting to gauge the comparative values to industry of the sexes, these proportions of themselves indi- cate almost a quarter decrease of skilled or at any rate experienced persons, compensated for by an increase of unskilled or at best inexperienced persons. Moreover, so far as the male replacements are concerned, to a large extent these were not and could not be of the pre-war quality. To begin with, there was the large group of men discharged as physically unfit from the army. In the second place the newcomers were often, indeed for the most part, boys or men well past the prime of life or available for civilian service because of rejection for military
