NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011 TOP SECRET – Sensitive
Asian mandarin. For one thing it isn't true, but were it so the only possible conclusion would be that there is no future for mandarins. The Communists don't favor them.
I come now to a lesser miscalculation, the alleged weakening emphasis of the Mekong flood. Floods in this part of the world are an old trap for Western non-agriculturists. They are judged by what the Ohio does to its towns. Now as the flood water recede it is already evident that this flood conforms to the Asian pattern, one repeated every year in India. The mud villages will soon grow again. Some upland rice was drowned because the water rose too rapidly. Nearer the coast the pressure on the brackish water will probably bring an offsetting improvement. Next year's crop will be much better for the silt.
I come now to policy, first the box we are in partly as the result of recent moves and second how we get out without a takeover. We have just proposed to help Diem in various ways in return for a promise of administrative and political reforms. Since the administrative (and possibly political) ineffectuality are the strategic factors for success the ability to get reforms is decisive. With them the new aid and gadgetry will be useful. Without them the helicopters, planes and adviser's won't make appreciable difference.
In my completely considered view, as stated yesterday, Diem will not reform either administratively or politically in any effective
