NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011
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- (g) It is understood that the French are planning to send reinforcements urgently from France and North Africa to replace the losses incurred in the evacuation of Caobang. These reinforcements may include the 10,000 non-commissioned and enlisted personnel planned for normal replacement in Indochina. In addition, there is a report that General Carpentier has requested 15 battalions for immediate reinforcement.
3. Saigon's Analysis of Situation (OMIN 1878). Recommendations in para c add nothing that is not already in process in Washington, other than calling in the U.N. to put out the big fire. Mr. Lacy opposes referring the Indochina problem to the U.N. He read his memorandum of conversation (attached) with Counselor of the French Embassy on Saturday, October 14. He and Mr. Hoey briefly noted the State Department's proposed reply to Saigon's cable.
4. Estimate of the Situation. Today's State-Defense informal meeting developed the following opinions on the overall situation, based on current information:
Political:
(a) There is no evidence of a French intention to withdraw from Indochina. There is considerable evidence of a French intention to withdraw from Tonkin or a part thereof.
(b) There is strong evidence of a French intention to throw the Indochina problem into the U.N. (see attached memorandum of conversation on 14 October.)
(c) There is no new evidence of a French intention to make a deal with the Chinese Communists. It should be noted that French reports from Saigon, particularly from High Commissioner Pignon, have begun to emphasize the presence of large numbers of "Chinese troops" on the Vietnamese side of the frontier.
Military:
(a) It is expected that the French will evacuate the posts of Laokay and Longson, and the entire border area to the small post of Monkay on the coast. Since this post can be supplied by sea it is possible that the French may try to hold it.
(b) According to the most recent estimate of G-2, the French can hold the delta area because of their superior fire power and air cover.
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