Page:Popular Science Monthly Volume 38.djvu/63

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THE LOGIC OF FREE TRADE AND PROTECTION.

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such a result is produced by a variety of causes, some of which may be known and some unknown? But as to what particular cause the effect is mainly due, and to what degree others influenced the result, we have no better means of knowing than the astronomer has of understanding the cause of the variation in the moon's orbit, when he is ignorant of the Newtonian laws. The sick man, having dosed himself with a variety of drugs and suddenly finding himself restored to health, has no reason for claiming that this or that particular compound had the salutary effect, if his knowledge is limited to this one or similar experiments; and so long as we fail to discover instances in which the disturbing causes are absent, or in which they can be eliminated, so long the method of induction remains useless. The problem of trade is an example at hand. Mr. Blaine informs us that trade is affected by a multitude of causes, such as locality, the age and population of a country, wars—both domestic and foreign—by emigration, pestilence, and famine. He states that "the unknown quantities are so many that a problem in trade or agriculture can never have an absolute answer in advance." "If," he says, "the inductive method of reasoning may be trusted, we certainly have a logical basis of conclusion in the facts here detailed. And by what other mode of reasoning can we safely proceed in this field of controversy?"^[1] What, indeed! And does Mr. Blaine really think it safe procedure to undertake the solution of a problem by a method the success of which is absolutely dependent upon a knowledge of all the quantities that are involved, when, as he states, the unknown quantities are so many? The truth is—and it evidently dawned upon him when he asked that question the method of inductive reasoning can not be applied successfully in this discussion,^[2] The

↑ It would appear from this remark that Mr. Blaine is ignorant of one of the greatest if not the greatest works on political economy, The Wealth of Nations, which was reasoned cut entirely from general principles. Statistics in the teachings of which Adam Smith placed little confidence were used only by way of illustration, and were selected to suit the particular occasion. In his admirable chapter on the Scotch intellect of the eighteenth century, Buckle says: "If Hume had followed the Baconian scheme. . . . he would hardly have written one of his works. Certainly, his economical views would never have appeared, since political economy is as essentially a deductive science as geometry itself. . . . The same dislike to make the facts of trade the basis of the science of trade was displayed by Adam Smith, who expresses his want of confidence in statistics, or, as it was then called, political arithmetic. . . . It is no exaggeration to say that if all the commercial and historical facts in the Wealth of Nations were false, the book would still remain, and its conclusions would hold equally good, though they would be less attractive. In it everything depends on general principles, and they, as we have seen, were arrived at in 1752 that is, twenty-four years before the work was published in which those principles were applied." (History of Civilization, vol. ii.)
It is a singular fact that neither Hume nor Smith were acquainted with trade practically, although masters of its science.
↑ "It is, however, evident that statistical facts are as good as any other facts, and, owing

[1] It would appear from this remark that Mr. Blaine is ignorant of one of the greatest if not the greatest works on political economy, The Wealth of Nations, which was reasoned cut entirely from general principles. Statistics in the teachings of which Adam Smith placed little confidence were used only by way of illustration, and were selected to suit the particular occasion. In his admirable chapter on the Scotch intellect of the eighteenth century, Buckle says: "If Hume had followed the Baconian scheme. . . . he would hardly have written one of his works. Certainly, his economical views would never have appeared, since political economy is as essentially a deductive science as geometry itself. . . . The same dislike to make the facts of trade the basis of the science of trade was displayed by Adam Smith, who expresses his want of confidence in statistics, or, as it was then called, political arithmetic. . . . It is no exaggeration to say that if all the commercial and historical facts in the Wealth of Nations were false, the book would still remain, and its conclusions would hold equally good, though they would be less attractive. In it everything depends on general principles, and they, as we have seen, were arrived at in 1752 that is, twenty-four years before the work was published in which those principles were applied." (History of Civilization, vol. ii.)
It is a singular fact that neither Hume nor Smith were acquainted with trade practically, although masters of its science.

[D63-2] "It is, however, evident that statistical facts are as good as any other facts, and, owing

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