of the present situation and its possibile developments is necessary. The election campaign has just begun and it is difficult to prophesy what are the intentions of the opposing groups. So far we are in possession of only two concrete facts: first that the "Sindycato de Agricultores," a body consisting of landowners, has constituted itself a political party; and second, that General Villa has been murdered. Beyond this, we have at our disposal some Mexican and American newspaper material, and the verbal report of your delegates on the general political situation. In spite of the sparseness of the data, we want to say a few words to you about the situation as we judge it.
The murder of General Villa is the prelude to Obregon's policy in the coming election. We do not think you can be in doubt as to what the tendencies of the present Government are. As the representatives of the young, national bourgeoisie, it is striving to effect a favorable compromise with the large estate holders and with foreign industrial and commercial capital. The hubbub over the creation of an independent national economic life is due to the mixed feelings caused by the immediate wish to develop a national capitalist system and the consciousness that capitalism in Mexico can develop only with the active participation of foreign, and especially of North American capital. The worst of it is that the United States is able at any time to cross the wide northern frontier of Mexico and defend her invested capital by means of close and long range artillery and poison gas. National industry in Mexico can develop only on the foundation of the development of agricultural conditions. But these are still very primitive. As a rule, the peasants are working with the same implements they used at the time of feudalism, and the land-owners, on account of the cheapness of labor power, have no interest in introducing agricultural technique. For the same reason, the Mexican large estate owners put out their money at interest, but do not in any way support the development of national industry. The unrest which has been prevailing in the country for years is forcing foreign capital to exercise the greatest caution; besides, the financial strength of Europe is so enfeebled, that nothing of any importance can be expected from this quarter. This does not at all mean that the Mexican bourgeoisie is abandoning the idea of the creation of an independent national industry. But under the present economic conditions of the world, it cannot undertake a struggle against the United States with any hope of success; it dare not even venture openly to exploit the conflicting oil interests of England and America against the latter, for it fears intervention.
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