not be a peaceful solution. A new Poland might be substituted for Bohemia or the South Slavic state or Trialism might be changed to a combination of four states—Quadrupleism—but the main objection would still hold good. The Germans of Austria would endeavor to increase the membership of the combination as long as they could control it against the Magyars, and the latter would resist by force, if necessary. It is evident that Trialism or Quadrupleism is doomed to failure at the hands of the Magyars and such other elements in Austria-Hungary as would be injured by the new combination. At best, it would be a temporary makeshift.
Federalism presupposes equality or a measure of equality on the part of the nations which make up the Hapsburg empire If the principle of federalism be honestly carried out, it will mean the end of German and Magyar domination. The Hapsburg dynasty fears the federal government would either slip out of its grasp or that the empire might easily dissolve and it be unable to find the force necessary to hold the state together. A federation is in principle opposed, therefore, by these three elements, thus far the lords of the empire’s destiny. It is certain that federal Austria-Hungary would be much weaker from a military point of view and hence would not be to Germany’s liking, which would employ all possible means to prevent a just federalism. The Slavs might at some crucial moment at least prevent a German alliance or assistance to Germany, even if they might not be able to have positive control of foreign policy. In short, the obstacles to the formation of a state like a federal Austria which could encourage a durable peace would be insurmountable. They would be immense if each nationality were gladly willing to enter such a federation, but to form one against the interests of the vested elements in power would spell failure.
Since Centralism, Dualism, Trialism, and Federalism have either been failures or are impracticable, make unstable the peace of Europe, and offer no permanent obstacle to Pan-Germanism, they are unacceptable from the American point of view. A just federation could alone give the nations of Austria-Hungary their chance to live, but the statesman who can mould the Danubian Monarchy into a federation has not yet appeared. In fact, the solution of the whole problem seems far more simple when, it is preceded by dismemberment. The old order retains too many vivid memories of the power which must vanish when democracy makes its home where the Austrian Monarchy formerly held sway.
Hence dismemberment seems to be the only permanent solution. Its main outlines have often been traced. Bohemia with Moravia and Slovakia would form one unit; the Poles of Austria would be joined to a restored Poland, the Ruthenians to an autonomous Little Russia in the new federal Russian Republic, the Roumanians of Transylvania to a restored Roumania, the Magyars, shorn of their subjects, might form a state of their own. The Slovenians, Serbians and Croatians, might form the much talked of South Slavic state. The Germans of Austria might be incorporated with Germany in part or as a whole. If in part, then a small eastern strip would be handed over to Bohemia and the new South Slavic state to form a bridge for purposes of economic intercourse. This would be necessary as a precaution and only if a world state were not formed. In such a case, an alliance with the new South Slavic state and alliances with France, Poland and Russia would be advisable. On the other hand, with the existence of a sufficient guarantee in world government, neither the Austrian connecting strip nor the alliances would be in order.
It is clear then that Austria-Hungary should be dismembered and that a league of nations will better guarantee the peace of mid-Europe against the encroachments of Pan-Germanism. American interests and policy oppose a balance of power which at best can only be temporary and which periodically brings those participating in it into crises or wars. We may, therefore, say that American interests coincide with the best solution of the difficulties confront ing that part of the world and incidentally they come wholly within the desires of the Czechs.
It has been argued that the economic life of Bohemia will be stifled by the establishment of her independence, because now she is protected by the Austrian tariff and in the future would share in the tariff of Pan-Germany, if that were created. Those who argue in that way ignore the comparative wealth of the various parts of the empire. They do not know that Bohemia’s taxes have paid for most of the wars of the Hapsburg empire from the sixteenth century down into our own; that she possesses
