Evaluation of the Handling of the Branch Davidian Stand-off in Waco, Texas/The Role Of FBI Behavioral Experts
For the stand-off in Waco the FBI called upon the services of the Criminal Investigative Analysis subunit, which falls under the Investigative Support Unit of the FBI's NCAVC. The special agents in this subunit offer assistance such as personality assessments of known individuals, suggestions as to strategy and on-site assistance with major violent crimes.
In addition to FBI experts, outside experts were consulted by the FBI during the Waco stand-off. These experts specialized in the fields of psychology and psychiatry and provided behavioral assessments of Koresh and his followers. Park Elliot Dietz, Clinical Professor of Psychiatry and Biobehavioral Sciences from the University of California School of Medicine and a civilian consultant to the FBI, provided assistance evaluating Koresh. Bruce D. Perry, Chief of Psychiatry of the Baylor College, worked with the released children and provided some assessments of Koresh's likely actions based on that work. Psychiatrist Joseph Krofcheck and Psycholinguist Murray Miron assisted in analyzing Koresh's letters which were sent out at the end of the stand-off.
The behavioral experts were provided access to all of the material gathered by the ATF regarding Koresh and the Davidians, including interviews of former members and records of prior criminal proceedings. In addition the behavioral scientists listened to the ongoing negotiations and spoke with those who interviewed the released children. The behavioral scientists expressed no dissatisfaction with the quantity and quality of information with which they were presented. Indeed, one of them remarked that even though the ATF had not gathered this information for the purposes of creating a psychological profile, they had all the information that was necessary.
The chronology of the written advice from the behavioral scientists is as follows: on March 3, 1993 the behavioral experts wrote a joint memo recommending a strategy of trying to work within the Davidians own belief system to talk them out. They recommended acknowledging the conspiracy against the Davidians and their right to defend themselves, and creating an illusion that Koresh could win in court and in the press and would not go to jail. On March 5 behavioral experts wrote a memo advising that the negotiation strategy focus on insuring the safety of the children and facilitating the peaceful surrender the Davidians. This memo recommended a de-escalation of tactical pressure because movement of tactical personnel would validate Koresh's prophesy that his followers must die defending their faith. As an alternative tactic, the memo recommends that efforts be made to drive a wedge between Koresh and his followers by convincing them that a battle is not inevitable.
They recommended continuing efforts to establish a wedge between Koresh and his followers using outside family members and released children to appeal to the parents, gaining direct intelligence about activities inside the compound and giving Koresh's followers the opportunity to safely break and run.
A memo of March 7, 1993 lists certain tactical activities that might be used to "increase the stress and anxiety" inside the compound, including many of the things that ultimately were done, such as floodlights, noises, loudspeakers, movement of military vehicles, shutting off utilities, fencing off the compound and discrediting Koresh at press conferences. However, the memo also cautions against tactical options which would shut down the negotiations, because then the only option would be physical action with the Davidians fighting to the death and tremendous loss of life. The memo recommended continued negotiation with the use of Sheriff Harwell as a third party intermediary.
A March 8, 1993 memo sets forth a psychological profile of Koresh. The memo points out that Koresh shows signs of being a religious fanatic with delusions. The memo speculates that Koresh may have ambushed the ATF agents on February 28 "to set into motion a chain of events which will verify, to his followers, that his interpretation of the scriptures...is correct." The memo acknowledges that "[i]t has been speculated that KORESH'S religious beliefs are nothing more than a con, in order to get power, money, women, etc., and that a strong show of force (tanks, APC's weapons, etc.) will crumble that resolve, causing him to surrender." In fact, the memo warns, the opposite may well occur and Koresh and his followers will draw clsoer together. The March 8 memo also recognizes that "[t]he strong show of force response is to be expected from law enforcement personnel, who are action oriented," but that Koresh may be trying to provoke a confrontation where the FBI unintentionally makes his prophesy come true. The memo warns that Koresh's teachings have been that his followers must follow him in death, even if that means killing themselves and that Koresh might order a mass suicide rather than lose his status as Messiah. The memo advises doing the opposite of what one would do in traditional hostage negotiations with a psychopath (i.e. wresting control), but rather moving back would be taking power from Koresh. It concludes "[t]he bottom line is that we can always resort to tactical pressure, but it should be the absolute last option."
A memo dated March 9, 1993, recommends that efforts should be made to break Koresh's spirit because his psychopathic tendencies to control and manipulate have caused the negotiations to meet with limited success. The memo recommends "nonoffensive" actions, such as sporadic termination and reinstating of utilities, unpredictable movement of manpower and equipment, downplaying Koresh in press conferences, jamming radio and television and denying negotiations to demonstrate that Koresh is no longer in charge and to buy time. A March 7 memo from headquarters suggests that small failures will cause the followers to question Koresh. At this point the behavioral science memos ceased.
On April 9 and 10 Koresh sent out two letters which were analyzed by psycholinguist Murray S. Miron and Psychiatrist Joseph Krofcheck, working with FBI agent Clinton Van Zandt. Miron assessed Koresh from the first letter as exhibiting a "rampant, morbidly virulent paranoia" and "dissociative pathology which makes him oblivious to either reality or rationality." Miron sees the letter as a "delusional communication" implying that Koresh is preparing to do battle against his adversaries, that he is in a mindset of aggressiveness and may have provided for "snares" against an assault on the compound. Krofcheck analyzes the same letter as showing Koresh to be a "functional, paranoid type personality" and a "charismatic, manipulative person with a core delusional system that sees himself as his own form of the trinity consisting of God, Jesus Christ and David Koresh, the prophet through whom God speaks." He believes Koresh is exercising self-deception and that he has no real intention to comply with any demands. Koresh is seen as a user of others who does not value his people as equals or human beings. He plans to catch the FBI unaware, which could include destruction by fire or explosion. "He may be prepared to do whatever he has to do to fulfill his ultimate game plan." "He is willing to kill, to see his followers die and to die himself." "Koresh's clock is running and he is fully capable of creating the circumstances to bring this matter to 'a magnificent' end in his mind, a conclusion that could take the lives of all of his followers and as many of the authorities as possible." Krofcheck believes Koresh will not come out voluntarily and "the government is the hostage." Krofcheck concludes that "we have no clear ability to influence the exit of him and his followers from their compound short of tactical intervention."
Finally, on April 17, just before the final assault plan was approved, Park Dietz was asked to give his views on the status of the negotiations and prognosis for a successful conclusion. In a memo dated April 17 Dietz opined that negotiating in good faith would not resolve the situation as it now stands. However, he believed the negotiations did not succeed because of the ATF's continued involvement in the case and the fact that negotiation strategies were "repeatedly undermined by ancillary actions." Dietz stated that Koresh would not come out or send out substantial numbers of his followers and that conditions inside the compound would continue to deteriorate.
From these memos it appears that the behavioral scientists did not simply apply a one dimensional diagnosis of anti-social personality, but took seriously the possibility that Koresh was also a delusional person willing to die and see his followers die according to his teachings.
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