Intelligence and Security Committee Report: Extreme Right-Wing Terrorism/The Current Threat Level

by the Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament

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THE CURRENT THREAT LEVEL

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The threat level

33. As previously noted, in July 2019, the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC) expanded its threat level assessment to include Extreme Right-Wing Terrorism (ERWT). The following year, MI5 reported:

Whilst we assess the ERWT threat to the UK is on a gradual upwards trajectory, we have not observed a significant increase in specific mobilisation or radicalisation during this reporting period, and ERWT investigations continue to constitute a significant minority of MI5's CT [counter-terrorism] casework.^[1]

34. As at 8 February 2021, the overall threat level to the UK from terrorism was lowered to SUBSTANTIAL, meaning an attack is likely.^[2] In terms of ERWT, JTAC *** assesses that an ERWT attack in the UK is ***, with the online space continuing to be ***.^[3] Later that month, MI5 confirmed:

The likelihood of a Right-Wing Terrorist (RWT) attack in the UK has not significantly changed *** and there has not been any substantial change in the ***.^[4]

35. Homeland Security Group advises that the main ERWT threat comes from Self-Initiated Terrorists (S-ITs), whom they define as: “persons who mobilise to threaten or use violence without material support or personal direction from a terrorist organisation; but who may still be influenced or encouraged by the rhetoric or ideology of a group".^[5] S-ITs (previously termed 'Lone Actors') are considered in more detail later in this Report.

JTAC Assessment: The Right Wing Terrorist Threat to the UK^[6]

A major driver of the ERWT threat is the online space, where sites dominated by Right Wing Extremists provide encouragement and guidance for terrorist attacks. As with Islamist terrorism, the online space provides a platform for individuals to self-radicalise and converse with like-minded individuals domestically and internationally.

Real-world ERWT groups *** threat. The high profile disruptions of National Action members since the group's proscription in December 2016, and subsequent proscriptions of alternative names for the group, have likely dissuaded others from forming similar groups in the UK.

Number of incidents

36. MI5 advises that, as an isolated measurement, the official number of ERWT attacks has not increased significantly in recent years.^[7] However, there have been a number of high-profile ERWT incidents and convictions in recent years. MI5 acknowledges the complexities in defining exactly what constitutes an ERWT offence:

An act of terrorism ordinarily predicates violent action in support of an ideology, however the absence of an overarching ERWT narrative and the broad spectrum of views encompassed within the ERWT umbrella means that proving an ideological motivation for a particular action can be challenging.^[8]

37. Nevertheless, since the proscription of National Action in 2016, there have been a string of arrests and convictions of individuals for ERWT offences, which have included membership of National Action, possession of material and encouraging terrorism:

• June 2016: Thomas Mair murdered Labour MP Jo Cox as she walked towards her constituency surgery.
• June 2017: Darren Osborne rammed a vehicle into a crowd outside a mosque near Finsbury Park, London, killing worshipper Makram Ali and injuring 12 others.
• June 2017: Ethan Stables arrested for planning a machete attack at a Gay Pride event in Barrow-in-Furness.
• June 2017: Jack Renshaw (a member of proscribed group National Action) charged with preparing acts of terrorism by plotting to kill Labour MP Rosie Cooper and a local police officer.
• March 2019: Vincent Fuller arrested (and subsequently charged) for attempted murder and racially aggravated assault.
• April 2019: Steven Bishop jailed for plotting to bomb a London mosque.
• October 2020: Cavan Medlock charged with preparing for an attack on Duncan Lewis Solicitors, ***.

Number of disruptions

MI5 advises that the number of incidents do not fully reflect the threat picture. Police-held data indicates that the number of ERWT investigations, disruptions and PREVENT referrals have all steadily increased since 2017. MI5 notes that, of the 25 attacks prevented by the Intelligence Community and Counter Terrorism Policing (CTP) in the period between the attack on Westminster Bridge in March 2017 and 31 January 2020, eight (just under 30% of the total) were motivated by an ERWT ideology.^[9]

39. The number of real-world organised ERWT groups in the UK remains low and the high-profile disruptions of National Action members since the group's proscription in December 2016, and subsequent proscriptions of aliases for the group, have probably dissuaded others from forming similar groups in the UK. More recently, the Government's proscription of Sonnenkrieg Division (SKD) in February 2020, and Feuerkrieg Division in July 2020, has strengthened the perception of the UK as a hostile operating environment for ERWT groups. JTAC assesses that "it is unlikely that a RW terrorist group *** in the UK in the near future".^[10] However, the online space has proved to be an effective platform for Extreme Right-Wing (XRW) individuals and groups to exert influence and recruit others—it is possibly irrelevant ***.

40. We asked if JTAC used specific criteria to determine if particular rhetoric reaches a specific benchmark for analysis in assessing the ERWT threat. They advised that setting a threshold could in fact limit their ability to develop a holistic understanding of the threat, and that it was important to analyse all data and information that contribute to radicalisation, recruitment and attack planning when assessing the ERWT threat: "for instance, Darren Osborne was reportedly galvanised to conduct a ERWT attack by his interpretation of, and reaction to, mainstream media."^[11]

The trajectory

41. MI5 advises that it is difficult to establish an accurate historical trajectory of the ERWT threat on the grounds that the recent increase in focus by HMG and heightened public awareness of the ERWT threat has contributed to an increase in referrals and investigations. However, the Director General of MI5 did observe that "2016 felt like a bit of a turning point with the proscription of National Action and the death of Jo Cox MP."^[12]

42. A further factor is that the ERWT threat may have been understated in the past—some incidents previously classified as racially motivated hate crimes might now be labelled as ERWT offences, based on evidence and a greater understanding of the threat and how it has evolved. MI5's own analysis acknowledges the need for:

greater scrutiny of definitions and thresholds of the ERWT threat to ensure consensus and consistency of casework classification across agencies. This will ensure more accurate and reliable data to track the ERWT threat trajectory going forwards.^[13]

How the ERWT threat could develop

The ERWT threat is on an upward trajectory, as demonstrated by the increasing number of convictions for ERWT offences. It is particularly worrying that the ERWT space is now populated by an increasing number of young people—the Director General of MI5 informed the Committee that a significant percentage of MI5's Subjects of Interest (SOIs) are under 24.^[14] The demographic is considered later in this Report.

44. The degree to which the rhetoric of non-violent Far-Right activists may overlap with, and act as a spur to motivate, more extreme and violent actors—and the difficulty this poses for law enforcement action—is also a factor in the development of the ERWT threat, as noted by the Commission for Countering Extremism:

Hateful extremists may share and propagate similar ideological worldviews as terrorists, but will not engage directly in violence or terrorism, and therefore fall short of counter-terrorism legislation. However, hateful extremists can still create a climate conducive to terrorism by radicalising, recruiting and propagating the same ideologies as terrorists, inciting hatred, and/or equivocating or legitimising violence against an 'out-group,'. . .^[15]

45. In January 2020, JTAC provided an assessment of how it saw the ERWT threat evolving:

• It is likely that RW terrorists globally will aspire to carry out high-impact attacks that will have a similar resonance in the RW community to Brenton Tarrant's Christchurch attack.
• Propaganda will continue to be distributed online, as well as propaganda that relates to mainstream issues. For a small minority of UK-based individuals ingesting such propaganda, real-world ERWT activity will be attractive.
• As more high-profile RW terrorists enter the Prisons Estate, there will likely be an increased threat from RW terrorists within prisons and following prison release in the medium to long-term future.^[16]

46. More recently, in June 2021 Homeland Security Group provided a strategic overview of the factors that could act as a driver of the ERWT threat:

Our understanding of the future trajectory of the ERWT threat is aligned with views of operational partners and our international partners; the threat is likely to increase over the next five years, with economic decline caused by COVID-19 being a likely driver of increased threat.

Other common issues identified were the rise of identity politics and increasing support for minority groups (opposed by Right Wing Extremists) alongside a reduction in trust in the state and the mainstream institutions/news [outlets] by Right Wing Extremists, and the increasing prevalence and reach of conspiracy theories held by Right Wing Extremists.

Given that the current threat is predominantly from Self-Initiated Terrorists, not groups, individual 'micro' motivations (e.g. an individual's employment status) are as likely to influence the threat as 'macro' ones (e.g. increasing levels of immigration into Europe).^[17]

The impact of recent events

47. More generally, MI5 noted that external events have had an impact on individuals' engagement with ERWT. MI5 explained:

The period immediately following MI5's adoption of full primacy in April 2020 was characterised by two phenomena which could have inflamed tensions amongst RWT SOI and led to increased violence: Firstly, COVID-19 (and linked conspiracy theories) constrained liberties and increased state interference in people's lives. Secondly, the death of George Floyd and the consequent focus on diversity and inclusion in public life (in particular the "Black Lives Matter" movement and public protests) also brought to prominence an agenda inimical to the mindset of many of our SOI.^[18]

48. ***, although there were associated concerns regarding ERWT:

We are mindful however that increased online activity during the period of lockdown provided individuals with increased opportunities to engage with online extremist material and with individuals online. There is a realistic possibility that this will have reinforced and further developed the extremist beliefs of some individuals, including those engaging with RWE.^[19]

49. In terms of Covid-19, as the virus spread across the globe in early 2020, a range of conspiracy theories and disinformation spread rapidly across the internet via mainstream and social media platforms—many of them linked to the XRW and the Far Right. A joint study by the Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD) and the BBC on Far-Right Exploitation of Covid-19, undertaken between January and April 2020, revealed that there had been:

hundreds of thousands of far right posts around COVID-19 and millions of engagements with known disinformation sites with a marked increase in conversations within far right circles about so-called 'elites' including Bill Gates, George Soros, the Rothschilds and Jeff Bezos and false information about their role in the creation or spread of the virus. The conversations monitored by ISD researchers referenced the virus as a tool of social control, a purposeful plot to kill off certain populations, or a means to make money for those individuals and their institutions.^[20]

As Jacob Davey of the ISD told the Committee, the pandemic was seen as an opportunity by some of the most extreme groups and individuals, with evidence of some "suggesting that they could even use COVID as a bioweapon against minority communities".^[21]

50. A report published by the UN Security Council Counter-Terrorism Committee also found that ERWT groups and individuals sought to co-opt the pandemic, using some of these conspiracy theories to attempt to radicalise, recruit and inspire plots and attacks:

Extreme Right Wing groups have reframed a long-standing racialized and misogynistic narrative—the perceived threat of cultural annihilation and the elimination of the ethno-cultural identities of European people—in light of COVID-19. Anti-migrant, antisemitic, anti-Asian, racist and xenophobic tropes have been at the forefront of COVID-19 related conspiracies and another that claims 'infected' migrants were 'imported' to decimate white populations.^[22]

51. This concern was echoed by the Australian intelligence community which has publicly expressed concern that the XRW are exploiting the pandemic to increase their influence. The Australian broadcaster ABC News reported in June 2020 that an assessment delivered by the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) had stated that Right-Wing Extremists now accounted for around a third of all its domestic investigations, and that Right-Wing Extremist rhetoric was potentially reaching a new audience who were increasingly socially isolated and spending more time online. ABC quoted an ASIO threat assessment sent to security professionals, which warned:

COVID-19 restrictions are being exploited by Extreme Right-Wing narratives that paint the state as oppressive, and globalisation and democracy as flawed and failing . . . We assess the COVID-19 pandemic has reinforced an extreme right-wing belief in the inevitability of societal collapse and a "race war".^[23]

52. On 9 December 2020, the Australian Minister for Home Affairs subsequently announced that he had requested the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security (PJCIS) to undertake an Inquiry into matters relating to extremist movements and radicalism in Australia. He asked that the Inquiry should focus in particular on the motivations, objectives and capacity for violence of extremist groups, including, but not limited to, Islamist and Far Right-Wing Extremist groups, and how these have changed during the Covid-19 pandemic. The Inquiry would also address, inter alia, the role and influence of radical and extremist groups which currently fall short of the legislative threshold for proscription, as well as the role of social media.^[24] The Inquiry is still ongoing at the time of writing this Report.

53. The potential of the pandemic to galvanise the XRW was a focus of the external experts who gave evidence to this Inquiry. Jacob Davey from the ISD observed:

If I were to characterise Far Right extremism, particularly for our online monitoring in the UK over the past year, we would say that it's particularly grown. This is correlated quite clearly with the Covid 19 pandemic. So in March of this year we saw a surge of Far Right activity across social media platforms with membership of groups increasing by as much as 100 per cent, discussion of key topics increasingly similarly . . . On the more sort of extreme and egregious side, we saw sort of a number of accelerationist communities discussing how Covid represented an opportunity for attacks and also individuals suggesting that they could even use Covid as a bioweapon against minority communities.^[25]

Nick Lowles, Chief Executive of Hope Not Hate, warned that the financial consequences of Covid-19 also posed a risk:

I think the other factor is the kind of economic consequences of Covid, which, you know, we've only in a way started to kind of experience, we don't know how that's going to play out, but obviously economic stress adds to the equation as well and I think in the sense of, you know, economic stress in itself isn't going to drive people to terrorism, but it creates a bigger pool. If people are angry, resentful, feeling that their world's even further away, you know, they're more open to alternative ideas.^[26]

54. MI5 reports that it *** in Covid-19-related conspiracy theories.^[27] These are notably prolific among Right-Wing Extremist and terrorist communities:

Although these conspiracy theories vary, common themes include anti-government narratives and blaming certain groups for creating and/or spreading the virus.^[28]

Interest in *** Covid-19 is likely to continue among terrorists from across the ideological spectrum. However, we question whether highly sophisticated methodologies (e.g. modifying the virus) are beyond the capability of UK attack planners.

55. In October 2020, JTAC assessed that it was a "realistic possibility" that the Covid-19 pandemic would increase the risk of terrorism over the next six months; and that several factors, such as economic recession and a lack of socio-economic security, terrorist engagement with wider community grievances around the effects of the pandemic, and global instability, were all possible drivers for this.^[29] In November 2020, the JTAC 'Future Outlook' assessment surmised:

• It is likely that future [Covid-19] national and local lockdowns will be incorporated into ERWT narratives. Additionally there is a realistic possibility that the wider social, political and economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic will directly increase the threat from ERWT over the next 12 months.
• It is highly likely that RW terrorists will continue to interpret events within their particular ideological framework. Future events, such as ***, could galvanise a RW terrorist into action.^[30]

56. When we spoke to the Director General of MI5 in April 2021, he was rather more sanguine regarding the particular ERWT threat posed by Covid-19. He observed that ***.^[31] MI5 acknowledged, however, that:

increased online activity during the period of lockdown provided individuals with increased opportunities to engage with online extremist material and with individuals online. There is a realistic possibility that this will have reinforced and further developed the extremist beliefs of some individuals, including those engaged with RWE [Right-Wing Extremism].^[32]

57. The Home Secretary confirmed that she was alive to the threat posed by the pandemic as a result of "the nation being locked down, locked up, etcetera, too many people at home on the internet, you know, and not seeing other people. We've touched on mental health. All those types of factors blended together of course could act as triggers and I think we should just be very mindful of that."^[33] In June 2021, the Home Office forecast that the ERWT threat would increase in the foreseeable future, with the ramifications of Covid-19 as a catalyst:

our understanding of the future trajectory of the ERWT threat is aligned with the views of operational partners and our international partners; the threat is likely to increase over the next five years, with economic decline caused by COVID-19 being a likely driver of increased threat.^[34]

D. It is not surprising that there are reports that Extreme Right-Wing Terrorist groups and individuals have sought to co-opt the Covid-19 pandemic, using conspiracy theories and exploiting community grievances to attempt to radicalise, recruit and inspire plots and attacks. The full impact of the Covid-19 pandemic has yet to be seen—but we are assured that the Intelligence Community and the police have recognised the impact that events such as the pandemic and the Black Lives Matter protests may have had on the extremist beliefs of individuals.

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1. MI5 Quarterly Report, 1 July 2020 - 31 December 2020.
2. www.mi5.gov.uk/threat-levels
3. JTAC paper, 8 February 2021.
4. Written evidence - MI5, 24 February 2021.
5. Written evidence - Office for Security and Counter-Terrorism (OSCT), 1 March 2021.
6. JTAC paper, 29 September 2020.
7. MI5 Strategic Intelligence Group paper, 13 January 2020.
8. MI5 Strategic Intelligence Group paper, 13 January 2020.
9. 'ISC Briefing - An Introduction to the work of MI5', 20 February 2020.
10. JTAC paper, 29 September 2020.
11. Written evidence - MI5, 26 May 2021.
12. Oral evidence - MI5, 28 April 2021.
13. MI5 Strategic Intelligence Group paper, 13 January 2020.
14. Oral evidence - MI5, 28 April 2021.
15. Written evidence - Commission for Countering Extremism, 17 December 2020.
16. JTAC paper, 19 November 2020.
17. Written evidence - Home Office, 8 June 2021.
18. Written evidence – MI5, 24 February 2021.
19. Written evidence – MI5, 24 February 2021.
20. ISD and BBC Click Investigation, Far-Right Exploitation of Covid-19, 12 May 2020.
21. Oral evidence – Jacob Davey, ISD, 16 December 2020.
22. UN Security Council, 'Member States Concerned by the Growing and Increasingly Transnational Threat of Extreme Right-Wing Terrorism', Counter Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED), Trends Alert, July 2020.
23. ABC, 'ASIO briefing warns that the far-right is exploiting coronavirus to recruit new members', 11 June 2020.
24. Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security, Current Inquiries, Inquiry into extremist movements and radicalism in Australia, 9 December 2020, www.aph.gov/au/parliamentary/business/committees/joint/intelligence_and_security
25. Oral evidence - Jacob Davey, ISD, 16 December 2020.
26. Oral evidence - Nick Lowles, Hope Not Hate, 16 December 2020.
27. Written evidence - MI5 Quarterly Report, 1 July 2020-31 December 2020.
28. JTAC paper, 8 October 2020.
29. JTAC paper, 8 October 2020.
30. JTAC paper, 19 November 2020.
31. Oral evidence - MI5, 28 April 2021.
32. Written evidence - MI5, 24 February 2021.
33. Oral evidence - Home Secretary, 20 May 2021.
34. Written evidence - Home Office, 8 June 2021.