SPECIAL TOPIC: PRC PERCEPTIONS OF THE INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ENVIRONMENT
Beijing views its international security environment as becoming increasingly complex, with intensifying confrontation with the United States raising the danger of conflict during this decade. PRC leaders believe that the United States is engaging in a systematic effort to suppress China’s development, prevent Taiwan’s unification with mainland China, and maintain U.S. global hegemony. This perception is driving the PRC to accelerate efforts to increase its economic and technological self-reliance, strengthen its ability to secure interests internationally, and continue to modernize its military.
In October 2022, the 20th Party Congress Political Work Report described the PRC’s external landscape as undergoing drastic changes unseen in a century and called on the Party to increase its sense of urgency to prepare for danger in an increasingly severe and complex international environment. In a speech to PRC industry leaders in March 2023, Xi explicitly accused Western countries led by the United States as containing, encircling, and suppressing the PRC and seeking to bring severe challenges to its development, further emphasizing the PRC’s view that the international environment has become increasingly hostile.
The PRC probably is increasingly concerned about Washington’s efforts to cultivate an international coalition willing to disrupt the PRC’s rise. PRC leaders almost certainly view the announcement of AUKUS as well as the expansion of QUAD-related activities in the Indo-Pacific as the latest examples of the United States seeking to use its political and military power to threaten the PRC’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. In response, Beijing has sought to strengthen PRC relations with Global South countries and promote PRC-backed incentives such as the GSI. PRC leaders and officials aim to internationally isolate Washington and cultivate support for the PRC’s priorities such as diminishing international support for Taiwan and condemning U.S. activities in the Indo-Pacific.
Russia’s war against Ukraine also represented a major, unexpected challenge for Beijing. Despite multiple warnings of Russia’s intentions, Beijing was caught off guard by the full scope and scale of Russia’s war, resulting in PRC officials scrambling to protect PRC interests. As Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine has continued, PRC leaders have increasingly viewed the war through the lens of U.S.-PRC strategic competition and sympathized with Russia’s rationale for waging a war against Ukraine. This conclusion has translated into Beijing remaining steadfast in its defense of Sino-Russian strategic cooperation, continuing to support Russia’s involvement in diplomatic forums, and opposing international economic sanctions. The PRC has also echoed Russian messaging on the war, claiming that the United States and NATO are responsible for causing and prolonging the war. Beijing also probably views assistance to Russia as an opportunity to maintain the positive trajectory in Sino-Russia ties and improve Russia’s willingness to support PRC efforts to counter the United States and reshape the international order. At the same time, PRC leaders have sought to emphasize the PRC’s “neutral narrative” on Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine, primarily to protect its reputation and deflect international criticism of Sino-Russian relations.
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OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China
