Page:Blackwood's Magazine volume 137.djvu/276

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A Black Year for Investors.
[Feb.

the public, the aggregate declines would be found to reach the solid figure of 123 millions sterling. The appreciations would amount to rather more than 50 millions, leaving a net decline of over 70 millions sterling for the year.

And yet the London Stock Exchange has had much less cause to complain than some of its provincial competitors. It has been positively fortunate in comparison with Scotland, where financial plunging seems to have become a fine art. Early in the year there was a succession of "liquidations" in the Scottish American market, all as bad as Wabash, though on a smaller scale. Fully one million sterling of capital was clean wiped out, and there was a shrinkage besides on other securities during the year to the extent of over 4 millions sterling. To set against this there were gains of little more than one million, the net depreciation on Scottish stocks having thus been 4¼ millions. Moreover, the Scottish investor bore also his full share of the losses on the London market, where a large amount of his speculative business is still transacted. On a moderate estimate, he lost as much in London as he did at home, or say another 4 millions sterling. English provincial stocks have held their ground more firmly perhaps than those of the larger markets, but though there has been no marked fall among them, they all show more or less evidence of depression. It is not too much to assume that the aggregate losses of Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds, Newcastle, Sheffield, and Birmingham, equalled those of Scotland, or, say, 4 millions sterling. Assign 2 millions to Ireland, which has considerable stock markets at Dublin and Belfast, and then the catalogue of investors' losses will be: London, 70 millions; English provincial stocks, 4 millions; Scottish stocks, 4 millions; Irish, 2 millions – total, 80 millions. But it should be explained that the heaviest depreciation on the London Exchange occurred in American Dollar Bonds and shares, which are not wholly held in this market. At the present moment the bulk of them may be in the States, as during the past two years every fresh panic caused great masses of them to be sent home to the Americans, who will watch their opportunity to reintroduce them at much more reputable-looking prices – in other words, considerably higher prices. If only half the loss in the American market were taken on our own shoulders, there would be about 25 millions to write off from the estimated losses of 1883. On this basis the net depreciation of London stocks might be reduced to about 50 millions sterling for the year, and the aggregate for all the stock markets in the United Kingdom would be nearly 60 millions sterling.

The British funds have led the way in this downward progress. Consols opened the year at 100¾, and closed at 99, while New Threes receded from 101⅛ to 99⅛. These reductions represented on the total amount outstanding a loss of 12 millions sterling, the entire responsibility of which must be laid at the door of Mr Childers and his abortive scheme for "sweating" the incomes of widow ladies and charitable trusts to the modest extent of 15 per cent. India stocks were depressed, partly, it may be, through Indian banks unloading, partly out of sympathy with Consols. They depreciated fully 2 millions sterling on the year, making 14 millions of a loss to the holders of British funds. The markets next in. rank derived great benefit from the fright which