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A Study in Probabilities
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Thompson, then, were arrested in New York, July 23, 1885, at a low resort where they were having a carouse. They had beaten and robbed another sailor. It seems that nothing was left of the sixty thousand francs, and naturally Tremaine found it difficult to go honestly to work again. The fourth clipping, undated, but probably some months later, shows that Tremaine and Thompson were sentenced to three years each in Sing Sing. But they didn’t stay there so long,” he added, turning to the next clipping, “at least Tremaine didn’t. On the night of January 2, 1886, in the midst of a tremendous snowstorm, they managed to hide themselves in one of the workshops, and afterwards to scale the outer wall. In the morning Thompson was found at the foot of the wall with his head cut open and nearly frozen. Tremaine got clear away. Thompson was brought around with the greatest difficulty, and would say nothing except to indulge in terrible imprecations against his companion. You see,” concluded Godfrey, looking up, “we begin to get at the motive.”

“Yes,” I agreed, “it’s very plain, now you’ve started on the right track. It’s a good deal like Columbus’s egg.”

Godfrey smiled and turned to the sixth clipping, the longest of them all.

“It’s that way with most mysteries,” he said, “and here’s the internal evidence that all this theorising is pretty straight. It’s the clew, too, which we’ve been seeking so long.”

“It explains Miss Croydon’s presence here?” I asked, intensely interested and deeply stirred.