THE CURRENT THREAT LEVEL
The threat level
33. As previously noted, in July 2019, the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC) expanded its threat level assessment to include Extreme Right-Wing Terrorism (ERWT). The following year, MI5 reported:
Whilst we assess the ERWT threat to the UK is on a gradual upwards trajectory, we have not observed a significant increase in specific mobilisation or radicalisation during this reporting period, and ERWT investigations continue to constitute a significant minority of MI5's CT [counter-terrorism] casework.[1]
34. As at 8 February 2021, the overall threat level to the UK from terrorism was lowered to SUBSTANTIAL, meaning an attack is likely.[2] In terms of ERWT, JTAC *** assesses that an ERWT attack in the UK is ***, with the online space continuing to be ***.[3] Later that month, MI5 confirmed:
The likelihood of a Right-Wing Terrorist (RWT) attack in the UK has not significantly changed *** and there has not been any substantial change in the ***.[4]
35. Homeland Security Group advises that the main ERWT threat comes from Self-Initiated Terrorists (S-ITs), whom they define as: “persons who mobilise to threaten or use violence without material support or personal direction from a terrorist organisation; but who may still be influenced or encouraged by the rhetoric or ideology of a group".[5] S-ITs (previously termed 'Lone Actors') are considered in more detail later in this Report.
JTAC Assessment: The Right Wing Terrorist Threat to the UK[6]
A major driver of the ERWT threat is the online space, where sites dominated by Right Wing Extremists provide encouragement and guidance for terrorist attacks. As with Islamist terrorism, the online space provides a platform for individuals to self-radicalise and converse with like-minded individuals domestically and internationally.
Real-world ERWT groups *** threat. The high profile disruptions of National Action members since the group's proscription in December 2016, and subsequent proscriptions of alternative names for the group, have likely dissuaded others from forming similar groups in the UK.
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