certainty than that of the geologists, and the scale of geological time remains in great measure unknown” (see also Tide, chap. viii.).
In an address to the mathematical section of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in 1889, the vice-president of the section, R. S. Woodward, thus expressed himself with regard to the physical arguments brought forward by Lord Kelvin and Professor Tait in limitation of geological time: “Having been at some pains to look into this matter, I feel bound to state that, although the hypothesis appears to be the best which can be formulated at present, the odds are against its correctness. Its weak links are the unverified assumptions of an initial uniform temperature and a constant diffusivity. Very likely these are approximations, but of what order we cannot decide. Furthermore, if we accept the hypothesis, the odds appear to be against the present attainment of trustworthy numerical results, since the data for calculation, obtained mostly from observations on continental areas, are far too meagre to give satisfactory average values for the entire mass of the earth.”
Still more emphatic is the protest made from the physical side by Professor John Perry. He has attacked each of the three lines of argument of Lord Kelvin, and has impugned the validity of the conclusions drawn from them. The argument from tidal retardation he dismisses as fallacious, following in this contention the previous criticism of the Rev. Maxwell Close and Sir George Darwin. In dealing with the argument based on the secular cooling of the earth, he holds it to be perfectly allowable to assume a much higher conductivity for the interior of the globe, and that such a reasonable assumption would enable us greatly to increase our estimate of the earth’s antiquity. As for the third argument, from the age of the sun’s heat, he points out that the sun may have been repeatedly fed by a supply of meteorites from outside, while the earth may have been protected from radiation, and been able to retain much of its heat by being enveloped in a dense atmosphere. Remarking that “almost anything is possible as to the present internal state of the earth,” he concludes thus: “To sum up, we can find no published record of any lower maximum age of life on the earth, as calculated by physicists, than 400 millions of years. From the three physical arguments Lord Kelvin’s higher limits are 1000, 400 and 500 million years. I have shown that we have reasons for believing that the age, from all these, may be very considerably underestimated. It is to be observed that if we exclude everything but the arguments from mere physics, the probable age of life on the earth is much less than any of the above estimates; but if the palaeontologists have good reasons for demanding much greater times, I see nothing from the physicists’ point of view which denies them four times the greatest of these estimates.”
A fresh line of argument against Lord Kelvin’s limitation of the antiquity of our globe has recently been started by the remarkable discoveries in radio-activity. From the ascertained properties of radium it appears to be possible that our estimates of solar heat, as derived from the theory of gravitation, may have to be augmented ten or twenty times; that stores of radium and similar bodies within the earth may have indefinitely deferred the establishment of the present temperature gradient from the surface inward; that consequently the earth may have remained for long ages at a temperature not greatly different from that which it now possesses, and hence that the times during which our globe has supported animal and vegetable life may be very much longer than that allowed in the estimates previously made by physicists from other data (see Radioactivity).
The arguments from the geological side against the physical contention that would limit the age of our globe to some 10 or 20 millions of years are mainly based on the observed rates of geological and biological changes at the present time upon land and sea, and on the nature, physical history and organic contents of the stratified crust of the earth. Unfortunately, actual numerical data are not obtainable in many departments of geological activity, and even where they can be procured they do not yet rest on a sufficiently wide collection of accurate and co-ordinated observations. But in some branches of dynamical geology, material exists for, at least, a preliminary computation of the rate of change. This is more especially the case in respect of the wide domain of denudation. The observational records of the action of the sea, of springs, rivers and glaciers are becoming gradually fuller and more trustworthy. A method of making use of these records for estimating the rate of denudation of the land has been devised. Taking the Mississippi as a general type of river action, it has been shown that the amount of material conveyed by this stream into the sea in one year is equivalent to the lowering of the general surface of the drainage basin of the river by 16000 of a foot. This would amount to one foot in 6000 years and 1000 ft. in 6 million years. So that at the present rate of waste in the Mississippi basin a whole continent might be worn away in a few millions of years.
It is evident that as deposition and denudation are simultaneous processes, the ascertainment of the rate at which solid material is removed from the surface of the land supplies some necessary information for estimating the rate at which new sedimentary formations are being accumulated on the floor of the sea, and for a computation of the length of time that would be required at the present rate of change for the deposition of all the stratified rocks that enter into the composition of the crust of our globe. If the thickness of these rocks be assumed to be 100,000 ft., and if we could suppose them to have been laid down over as wide an area as that of the drainage basins from the waste of which they were derived, then at the present rate of denudation their accumulation would require some 600 millions of years. But, as Dr A. R. Wallace has justly pointed out, the tract of sea-floor over which the material derived from the waste of the terrestrial surface is laid down is at present much less than that from which this material is worn away. We have no means, however, of determining what may have been the ratio between the two areas in past time. Certainly ancient marine sedimentary rocks cover at the present day a much more extensive area than that in which they are now being elaborated. If we take the ratio postulated by Dr Wallace—1 to 19—the 100,000 ft. of sedimentary strata would require 31 millions of years for their accumulation. It is quite possible, however, that this ratio may be much too high. There are reasons for believing that the proportion of coast-line to land area has been diminishing during geological time; in other words, that in early times the land was more insular and is now more continental. So that the 31 millions of years may be much less than the period that would be required, even on the supposition of continuous uninterrupted denudation and sedimentation, during the whole of the time represented by the stratified formations.
But no one who has made himself familiar with the actual composition of these formations and the detailed structure of the terrestrial crust can fail to recognize how vague, imperfect and misleading are the data on which such computations are founded. It requires no prolonged acquaintance with the earth’s crust to impress upon the mind that one all-important element is omitted, and indeed can hardly be allowed for from want of sufficiently precise data, but the neglect of which must needs seriously impair the value of all numerical calculations made without it. The assumption that the stratified formations can be treated as if they consisted of a continuous unbroken sequence of sediments, indicating a vast and uninterrupted process of waste and deposition, is one that is belied on every hand by the actual structure of these formations. It can only give us a minimum of the time required; for, instead of an unbroken series, the sedimentary formations are full of “unconformabilities”—gaps in the sequence of the chronological records—as if whole chapters and groups of chapters had been torn out of a historical work. It can often be shown that these breaks of continuity must have been of vast duration, and actually exceeded in chronological importance thick groups of strata lying below and above them (see Part VI.). Moreover, even among the uninterrupted strata, where no such unconformabilities exist, but where the sediments
