Egypt, a proposition to which Palmerston, though sincerely anxious to preserve the Anglo-French entente, refused to agree. The tension of the situation was increased when, on the 10th of February 1840, Thiers came into power. The diplomacy of Guizot, backed now by Austria and Prussia, had succeeded in persuading Palmerston to concede the principle of allowing Mehemet Ali to receive, besides Egypt, the pashalik of Acre as far as the frontiers of Tripoli and Damascus (May 7). Thiers, however, refused to listen to any suggestion for depriving him of any part of Syria; but, instead of breaking off the correspondence and leaving the concert, he continued the negotiations, and before long circumstances came to the knowledge of the British government which seemed to prove that he was only doing so with a view to gaining time in order to secure a separate settlement in accordance with French views.
The opportunity for this arose from a change in the situation at Constantinople, where the dismissal of Khusrev Pasha had, in Mehemet Ali’s view, removed the main obstacle to his reconciliation with the sultan. He proposed to the French consul-general at Alexandria to make advances to the Porte, and suggested sending back the Ottoman fleet as an earnest of his good intentions, a course which, it was hoped, “would lead to a direct and amicable arrangement of the Turco-Egyptian question.” On the 21st of June his envoy, Sami Bey, actually arrived at Constantinople, ostensibly to congratulate the sultan on the birth of a daughter, really to make use of the French influence now supreme at the Porte in order to effect a settlement. In the circumstances the proper course for Thiers to have pursued would have been to have communicated to the powers, to whom he was bound by the moral engagement of the 27th of July 1839, the new conditions arising out of Mehemet Ali’s offer. Instead he wrote to Guizot, on the 30th of June, saying that the situation argued strongly in favour of postponing any decision in London, adding: “I have written to Alexandria and Constantinople to counsel moderation on both sides; but I have been careful to forbid the agents to enter on their own account, and as a French undertaking, on a negotiation of which the avowed aim is a direct arrangement. If such an enterprise is imputed to us, you will be in a position to deny it.”
The discovery of what seemed an underhand intrigue on the part of France produced upon the powers exactly the effect that Thiers had foreseen and deprecated. They regarded it as an attempt to ruin the work of the concert and to secure for France a “complete individual triumph” at Alexandria and Constantinople; and their countermove was to sign at London on the 15th of July, without the concurrence of France, a convention with the Porte for the settlement of the affairs of the Levant. By this instrument it was agreed that the terms to be offered to Mehemet Ali having been concerted with the Porte, the signatory powers would unite their forces in order to compel the pasha to accept the settlement. As to the terms to be offered, it was arranged that, in the event of Mehemet Ali yielding within ten days, he should receive the hereditary pashalik of Egypt and the administration for life of southern Syria, with the title of Pasha of Acre and the possession of the fortress of St Jean d’Acre. At the end of ten days, should he remain obdurate, the offer of Syria and Acre would be withdrawn; and if at the end of another ten days he was still defiant, the sultan would hold himself at liberty to withdraw the whole offer and to take such measures as his own interests and the counsels of his allies might suggest to him.
The news of this “mortal affront” to the honour of France caused immense excitement in Paris. The whole press was clamorous for war; Thiers declared that the alliance with Great Britain was shattered, and pressed on warlike preparations; even Louis Philippe was carried away by the fever. The immediate effect was that Mehemet Ali, confident of French assistance, maintained a defiant attitude. The situation, however, was rapidly changed by the unexpected results of the armed intervention of the Allies. The appearance of the combined British, Austrian and Russian fleets, under Sir Charles Napier, off Beirut (Aug. 11) was the signal for a general rising of the Syrians against Ibrahim’s tyranny. On the 11th of September, Suleiman Pasha not having obeyed the summons to evacuate the town, the bombardment was begun, and Ottoman troops were landed to co-operate with the rebels. On the 3rd of October Beirut fell; and Ibrahim, cut off from his communications by sea, and surrounded by a hostile population, began a hurried retreat southward. On the 3rd of November Acre surrendered to the allied fleet. Mehemet Ali’s power in Syria had collapsed like a pricked bubble; and with it had gone for ever the myth of his humane and enlightened rule. The sole question now was whether he should be allowed to retain Egypt itself.
On the 15th of September the sultan, who had broken off all negotiations with Mehemet Ali on receipt of the news of the Syrian revolt, acting on the advice of Lord Ponsonby, declared the pasha deposed, on the ground that the term allowed by the Convention of London had expired, and nominated his successor. Mehemet Ali received the news with his accustomed sang-froid, observing to the consuls of the four powers, who had come to notify their own removal, that “such denunciations were nothing new to him; that this was the fourth, and that he hoped to get over it as well as he had done the other three, with the help of God and the Prophet.” In the end his confidence proved to be justified. The news of the events in Syria and especially of the deprivation of Mehemet Ali had produced in France what appeared to be an exceedingly dangerous temper; the French government declared that it regarded the maintenance of Mehemet Ali in Egypt as essential to the European balance of power; and Louis Philippe sought to make it clear to the British government, through the king of the Belgians, that, whatever might be his own desire to maintain peace, in certain events to do so would be to risk his throne. Palmerston, indeed, who did not believe that under the Bourgeois Monarchy France would translate her brave words into action, was in favour of settling the Turco-Egyptian question once for all by depriving Mehemet Ali of Egypt as well. The influences against him, however, were too powerful. Metternich protested against a course which would result, in his opinion, either in a war or a revolution in France; King Leopold enlarged on the wickedness and absurdity of risking a European war for the sake of putting an end to the power of an old man who could have but few years to live; Queen Victoria urged her ministers to come to terms with France and relieve the embarrassments of the “dear King”; and Lord Melbourne, with the majority of the cabinet, was in favour of compromise. When therefore, on the 8th of October, Guizot, in an interview with Palmerston, presented what was practically an ultimatum on the part of France, “it was determined that this intimation should be met in a friendly spirit, and that Lord Palmerston should see the Ministers of the other powers and agree with them to acquaint the French that they with England would use their good offices to induce the Porte not to insist on the deprivation of Mehemet Ali so far as Egypt is concerned.” In accordance with this Palmerston instructed Ponsonby to press upon the sultan, in the event of Mehemet Ali’s speedy submission, not only to withdraw the sentence of deprivation but to confer upon him the hereditary pashalik of Egypt.
For a while it seemed that even this would not avert a European war. Thiers still maintained his warlike tone, and the king’s speech prepared by him for the opening of the Chambers on the 28th of October was in effect a declaration of defiance to Europe. Louis Philippe himself, however, was not prepared to use this language; whereupon Thiers resigned, and a new cabinet was formed under Marshal Soult, with Guizot as foreign secretary. The equivocal tone of the new speech from the Throne raised a storm of protest in the Chambers and the country. It was, however, soon clear that Palmerston’s diagnosis of the temper of the French bourgeois was correct; the clamour for war subsided; on the 4th of December the address on the Egyptian Question proposed by the government was carried, and peace was assured. Nine days earlier Sir Charles Napier had appeared with a British squadron off Alexandria and, partly by persuasion, partly by threats, had induced Mehemet Ali to submit to the sultan and to send back the Ottoman fleet, in return for a guarantee
