to which the witnesses belong. Under these circumstances it seems necessary to assume that the testimony of the official documents of the federal government is correct, unless clear evidence, internal or external, refutes it. The following statements of fact rest mainly on those sources.
The number of negroes living in the (continental) United States in 1908 was about nine and three-quarter millions, and if those in Porto Rico and Cuba be included it reached ten and two-thirds millions. This number is greater than the total population of the United States was in 1820, and nearly as great as the population of Norway, Sweden and Denmark.
During the colonial period, and down to the changes initiated by the invention of the cotton gin, negroes were distributed with some evenness along the Atlantic coast. Between the date of that invention and the Civil War, and largely as a result of the changes the cotton gin set in motion, the tendency was towards a concentration of the negroes in the great cotton-growing area of the country. In 1700, for example, one-ninth of the population of the colony of New York was negro; in 1900 only one-seventieth of the population of the empire state belonged to that race. The division line between the Northern and Southern states adopted by the Census Office in 1880, and employed since that date in its publications, is Mason and Dixon’s line, or the southern boundary of Pennsylvania, the Ohio river from Pennsylvania to its mouth and the southern boundary of Missouri and Kansas. In the states north of that line, the Northern states, in all of which but Missouri negro slavery either never existed or else was abolished before the Civil War, the white population increased tenfold and the negro population only fourfold between 1790 and 1860. In the states south of that line, on the contrary, the Southern states, the negro population in the same period increased sixfold and the white population not so fast. It was a widespread opinion shortly after the Civil War that the emancipated slaves would speedily disperse through the country, and that this process would greatly simplify the problems arising from the contact of the two races. This expectation has not been entirely falsified by the result. Between 1860 and 1900 the negroes in the Northern states increased somewhat more rapidly than the northern whites, and those in the Southern states much less rapidly than the Southern whites. As a result, one-tenth of the American negroes lived in 1908 in the Northern states, a larger proportion than at any time during the 19th century. But this process of dispersion is so slow as not materially to affect the prospects for the immediate future, and it is still almost as true as at any earlier date that the region in which cotton is a staple crop coincides in the main with the region in which negroes are more than one-half of the total population.
This appears if a comparison is made between the northern boundary of the so-called Austroriparian zone of plant and animal life in the United States, that is “the zone of the cotton plant, sugar cane, rice, pecan and peanut,” and the northern boundary of the “black belt” or region in which the negroes are a majority of the population. The coincidence of the two is very close, and was much closer in 1900 than in 1860. It appears yet more clearly by a comparison between a map showing the counties in which at least 5% of the area was planted to cotton in 1899 and another map showing the “black belt” counties in 1900. The black belt stretches north through eastern Virginia beyond the cotton belt, and the cotton belt stretches south-west through eastern central Texas beyond the black belt, but between these two extremes there is a close agreement in the boundaries of the two areas.
The question “Have the American negroes progressed, materially and morally, since emancipation?” is generally answered in the affirmative. But even on this question entire unanimity is lacking. A considerable body of men could still be found in 1910, mainly among Southern whites, who held that the condition of the race was worse than it was in the days of slavery. Probably all competent students would admit, however, that the race has differentiated since 1865, that the distance separating the highest tenth from the lowest tenth has become wider, that the highest tenth is far better and far better off than formerly, and the lowest tenth is worse and perhaps also worse off than in slavery. Under such circumstances there are no adequate objective tests of progress. The pessimist points to the alleged increase of idleness and crime, the meliorist to a demonstrated decrease of illiteracy and to considerable accumulations of property. The large majority of competent students believe that the American negroes have progressed, materially and morally, since emancipation, that the central or average point is higher than in 1865, although such persons differ widely among themselves regarding the amount of that progress.
It would be generally but not universally held, also, that the negroes in the United States progressed under slavery, that they were far better qualified for incorporation as a vital and contributing element of the country’s civilization at the time of their emancipation than they were on arrival or than an equal number of their African kindred would have been. But probably the rate of progress has been more rapid under freedom than it was under slavery.
The evidence regarding the progress of the American negro may be grouped under the following heads: numbers, birth-rate, health, wealth, education, occupations, morals, citizenship.
Numbers.—The dictum of Adam Smith, “The most decisive mark of the prosperity of any country is the increase of the number of its inhabitants,” may be applied, perhaps after changing the word “decisive” to “obvious,” to the negro population of the United States. The negro population of Africa is probably not increasing at all. But during the 19th century the negroes in the United States increased nearly ninefold. They are now much the most thriving offshoot of the race and the most civilized and progressive group of negroes in the world. Under a slavery system not permitting the importation of new supplies a high rate of increase by excess of births over deaths is an advantage to the master class. During the slavery period and until about 1880 the increase of southern whites and of southern negroes proceeded at about the same rate. But during the last score of years in the century the increase of negroes was much less rapid, the rate being only about three-fifths of that prevailing among southern whites.
Birth-rate.—As the increase of negro population is slackening, as the immigration and emigration of negroes are insignificant in amount, and as the death-rate is about stationary, it is reasonable to infer that the birth-rate is dwindling. This cannot be stated with certainty, for there are no registration records giving the number of births for any large and representative group of American negroes. A good index to the birth-rate, however, may be derived from the proportion of children under 5 years of age to women 15 to 49 years of age. In the returns negroes are not distinguished from Indians and Mongolians. To minimize this slight source of error and at the same time to secure a more representative and homogeneous population group, the following figures are confined to the Southern or former slave states:—
| Date. | Children under 5 Years of Age to 1000 Women 15 to 49 Years of Age in the Southern States. | |
| Negroes. | Whites. | |
| 1850 | 705 | 695 |
| 1860 | 688 | 682 |
| 1870 | 661 | 601 |
| 1880 | 737 | 656 |
| 1890 | 601 | 580 |
| 1900 | 577 | 581 |
These figures indicate that the proportion of children to child-bearing women, and hence probably the birth-rate, changed in the same direction during each decade between 1850 and 1890. Between 1850 and 1870 the proportion of negro children decreased about 6% and that of white children about 14%; between 1870 and 1880 the proportion of negro children increased about 12% and that of white children about 9%; between 1880 and 1890 the proportion of negro children decreased about 18% and that of white children about 12%; between 1890 and 1900 the proportion of negro children decreased about 4% and that of white children remained practically the same. Before the war the proportion of living children to potential mothers was about the same for the two races at the South, for the first three censuses after the war the proportion of negro children was much greater than of white children, but by 1900 that proportion was less, and the movement during the decade suggests that the proportions may have begun to change in opposite directions.
