was largely bluff. Mr. Redmond on behalf of his party dis-
claimed any desire to establish ascendancy, and averred that
Ulster would not be attacked. But the Unionists relied more
on speeches in the great towns and on events in Ulster than
on Parliament for the enlightenment of the country. Imme-
diately after the division on the second reading, in June, Sir
Edward Carson started on a political tour in Great Britain, making
eloquent speeches in Glasgow, Edinburgh, Norwich, and Bristol
a demonstration which Mr. Redmond and his friends endeavoured
to neutralize by following in the Ulster leader's footsteps. In
July Sir Edward Carson spent several weeks in organization
and speech-making in Belfast and the neighbourhood. He fore-
shadowed the establishment of a Provisional Government for
Ulster, and assured his hearers that the Cabinet could not rely
upon the army in forcing Home Rule upon them. Volunteers
continued to drill, and provided themselves with the usual
accompaniments of a modern army. More definite steps were
taken in the autumn. On Sept. 25 the Ulster Unionist Council
formally organized itself into a Provisional Government with a
central authority whose chairman was Sir Edward Carson, and a
guarantee fund intended to reach i ,000,000, to which the leader
contributed 10,000. He formally reviewed the Volunteers, who
then numbered 60,000 and increased to nearly 100,000 by the
winter. On Nov. 3 there was a great demonstration in Belfast
in favour of his policy by Ulster men of business, presided over
by the president of the Belfast Chamber of Commerce. And on
the 28th there was an enthusiastic meeting in his support in
Dublin, where Mr. Law repeated his pledges to Ulster.
The Liberals retorted to these proceedings with jeers at " King Carson," and suggestions, which the Cabinet were too wise to accept, for his arrest. But many of them be- gan to realize that there was a substantial difficulty Settlement in Ulster which could not be any longer ignored. Suggestions for a conference to arrange a compro- mise were thrown out in the Lords debate in July, and became more definite as the year drew towards a close. Mr. O'Brien, for the Independent Nationalists, pleaded for some such course; Lord Loreburn, the Liberal ex-Lord Chancellor, proposed it in The Times of Sept. 1 1 ; Lord Grey urged the advantages of a federal solution; and on Oct. 9, Mr. Churchill, an important member of the Cabinet, advocated at Dundee a solution by agreement. Though Mr. Redmond, on Oct. 12, refused to contemplate anything beyond an increase in the safe- guards for the minority, Mr. Asquith, in his annual address to his constituents at Ladybank on Oct. 25, said that the Government were prepared to consider proposals within the scope of the bill; that they were anxious for a settlement by consent, not through a conference, but through a free and frank exchange of views. Two days later Sir Edward Grey, at Berwick, suggested that there might be a Home Rule for Ulster within Home Rule for Ireland. Mr. Law replied at Wallsend on Oct. 29 that he would consider any proposals with a real desire to find a solution, and Sir Edward Carson, who was present, expressed his agree- ment, but the offer must be consistent with the Covenant. A fortnight later, at Norwich, Mr. Law said it was the duty of the Government to submit their proposals to the judgment of the people either at a general election or by a referendum. Mr. Redmond, speaking at Newcastle-on-Tyne next day, described the Unionists as trying to intimidate the people of England. Still he expressed a preference for a settlement by consent, but it must be based on national self-government for Ireland. Mr. Lloyd George on Nov. 29 treated Unionist demonstrations against Home Rule as a red herring drawn across his campaign for social reform. There was much speaking on both sides during the last weeks of the year, but apparently no advance towards an agreement. Mr. Law said the sands were running out and nothing had been done, but Sir Edward Grey replied that there were still some months to spare. In the beginning of the new year Lord Curzon intimated at Manchester that the conversa- tions between leaders had had no result. Sir Edward Carson went to Belfast and advised " peace but preparation," and Mr. Redmond assured his constituents at Waterford that the bill
would that year automatically become law. The Unionists were strengthened in their resistance by some gains in by-elec- tions during 1913 and early in 1914; but perhaps the most striking feature in the polls was the increasing support given to Labour at the expense of the Liberals.
It was in these conditions of doubt and apprehension that Parliament reassembled on Feb. 10 1914. The King's speech, while admitting that efforts at solution had so far Q 0vern . failed, expressed a hope that they would yet succeed, meat Con- Mr. Asquith laid stress upon these words in the cessloas - debate on the Address. Sir Edward Carson said that, if the Government were in earnest, there must be an amending bill a suggestion which Mr. Redmond ridiculed. No move was, however, made by the Government in the next week or two, and the organization of public opinion in England in support of Ulster was rapidly proceeded with. A British Covenant, similar to the Ulster Covenant, was promulgated on March 3, headed by the signatures of influential men, not closely identified with political party, such as Lord Roberts, Lord" Halifax, Lord Milner, Prof. Dicey, Dean Wace, and Mr. Rudyard Kipling. A Woman's Covenant followed; and both documents were eagerly signed, an appreciable proportion of the signatures being professing Liberals. On March 9 Mr. Asquith, in moving for the third and last time the second reading of the Home Rule bill, announced the projected concessions. The Government would propose that any county in Ulster, including the county boroughs of Belfast and Londonderry, might vote itself out of the jurisdiction of the Irish Parliament for a term of six years, after which it would automatically come within that jurisdiction. The Prime Minister pointed out that, under the Parliament Act, there would necessarily be two general elections in Great Britain before the six years expired. This scheme of provisional exclu- sion entirely failed to satisfy either the Opposition or Ulster. Mr. Law said that, if this was the last word of the Government, the position was very grave; Ulster was asked to destroy her future. Mr. Redmond insisted that this was the extreme limit of con- cession; and the Independent Nationalists protested vehe- mently against partition. Sir Edward Carson took note of the gain involved in admitting the principle of exclusion, but said emphatically " We don't want sentence of death with a stay of execution for six years." The situation became sensibly graver when Mr. Churchill at Bradford, on March 14, said that the Prime Minister's offer appeared to him to be final, reproached the Unionists and Ulster for not being satisfied with it, and maintained that, in the event of violence, the larger issue, be- tween parliamentary government and armed force, once fought out at Marston Moor, would become dominant. If there was any attempt in action to subvert parliamentary government there was no lawful measure from which the Cabinet would shrink. They had sent out soldiers during the railway strike with Unionist approval. If the British civil and parliamentary systems were to be brought to the challenge of force, he could only say " Let us go forward together and put these grave mat- ters to the proof." This utterance, which was endorsed a few days later by Mr. Lloyd George, and the refusal of the Prime Minister to give details of his proposals unless the general principle were adopted, led to an Opposition motion of censure on March 19. In the debate Mr. Law made a formal offer: if the new suggestions were put into the Home Rule bill and accepted by the country on a referendum, he had Lord Lansdowne's authority to say that, so far as his influence in the House of Lords went, he would not oppose the will of the people. This Mr. Asquith would not accept. Sir Edward Carson then left the House, amid a great Unionist demonstration, and, accompanied by eight Irish Unionist members, proceeded to Ulster.
An explosion in some form seemed to be imminent. Mr. Law had said in the censure debate that, in a case merely of disorder, the army would and ought to obey; if it were a The Army question of civil war, " soldiers are citizens like the aad rest of us." This was speedily proved. It was de- ulster - termined to protect certain military stores in the N. of Ireland from possible raids by Ulster Volunteers, and a considerable
