huge surplus of the 1914 crop was rapidly being exhausted. It was not till the early summer of 1917, however, that matters came to a head, when the intensive submarine campaign made it impossible to maintain adequate imports of cotton. The Cotton Control Board was set up in Liverpool to ration the limited supplies available, 1 and at a later stage the British and Egyptian Governments set up a control scheme in Egypt to handle the 1918 crop by purchase.
Up to the end of the war, therefore, the supplies actually available remained very limited, and it was only due to the compulsory restriction of the consumption of the Central Powers that the supply was able to meet the demand at all. Unfortu- nately the Armistice was followed by a temporary period of hesitation and delay in getting things going again, which resulted in a serious fall in the price of cotton. This immediately reacted in a reduction of the acreage again in 1919 in America, and as this happened to coincide with another disastrous season, the 1919 supply was again extremely short. When on the top of this came the great post-war boom of 1919-20, in which the real needs of the world were exaggerated by the speculative hopes of those who saw fortunes in the reopening of the world's markets, prices simply broke all bounds and rose to figures which have perhaps never been equalled in the history of the trade. American cotton was over 2s. 8d. a lb., while the best Egyptian was over jos. a lb. Indeed one of the features of the period was the extraordinary premiums paid for good staple cotton. This was largely due to the sudden rise of the motor trade in America. When it came out that at the beginning of 1919 there were over six million motor-cars in the United States (since increased to ten millions), it was obvious that the demand for that class of cotton would be large, and the Egyptian varieties were the most desirable for the purpose. The result was practically a corner in Egyptian, which drove the price up to $200 per kantar (100 lb.) in Alexandria, against an average of less than $20 before the war.
The subsequent slump in cotton was as dramatic as had been its rise. Within almost twelve months from the very top prices in Feb. 1920, American cotton had again fallen below pre-war prices, while Egyptian, which had so much farther to fall, reached almost the same point. The inevitable effect again was a movement for the reduction of acreage, which once more brought the world's crops for 1921 far below pre-war records.
"See History of the Cotton Control Board by H. D. Henderson (the Secretary) 1921.
In the meantime the world's trade had been brought almost to a standstill by the slump in demand everywhere. The extent of this is shown by the Federation statistics (Table C), which were resumed on July 31 1920 (the date of the cotton "season" having been in the meantime advanced by a month).
In their figures as at Jan. 31 1921, shown in the above table, it was possible to compare the consumption during the height of the boom with that of the pre-war year, and also with that of the first six months of the slump. The fact that the con- sumption even during the boom was not equal to the pre-war consumption is due, first, to the destruction of textile machinery in the devastated districts of France and Belgium; and, second, to the reduction of the hours of labour throughout most parts of the cotton world, which came into vogue immediately after the war. In 1919 the makers of textile machinery were utterly unable to cope with the demand for new machinery to replace that which had been destroyed during the war, or to make up the arrears of renewals which had fallen behind during the war. New machinery outside of these privileged requirements was practically unobtainable, with the result that the trade was unable to take full advantage of the boom in the demand by increasing its output. The high prices were therefore due not merely (if at all) to the shortage of the raw material, except perhaps in the case of Egyptian and other staple cottons, but rather to a shortage of cotton goods.
Prospects in 1921. It may seem paradoxical to speak of possible scarcity at a time (Aug. 1921) when the actual de- mand for cotton goods seemed almost at a standstill, and the world was apparently over-stocked not only with cotton goods, but also with the raw material. Yet there could be no practical doubt that the world would ere long be seriously short of cotton again; because it could only be a question of time till a return to something like normal conditions of demand would again lead to a consumption of cotton substantially in excess of what the world was producing. The abnormally large carry- over which was accumulated during the slump might prevent any scarcity arising within the immediate future, but it could hardly be doubted, unless the world was to face a prolonged period of practical starvation, that the consumption of cotton, which is the cheapest textile in the world for many other pur- poses besides clothing, could not permanently remain at the low level of 1921. The question was whether, when the demand came again, the supply would be as quick to respond as it was to contract when prices fell. It was extremely unlikely that pre-
TABLE C. World's Consumption of Cotton by Countries and Varieties.
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(Calculated from the statistics of the International Cotton Federation.)
(ooo's omitted throughout.)
Country.
Year to Aug. 31 1913.
Year to July 31 1920.
Half-year to Jan. 31 1921.
|
ll P'S,
He/)
Consumption.
D
o
I!
o a
Consumption.
Active Spindles.
Consumption.
i <
d
a
1
c.
5
U
Sundries.
|
o H
jj <
Indian.
a
a
c/J .
- Q
a e
3 C/}
"t3 1
10
<
c a
1
tl
i.
So- ld
152 9
25
i
2 I
2 12
7 i
9
221
Sundries.
jj
- -
I
Great Britain Germany . France . Russia Poland and Finland Austria . Czechoslovakia Italy Spam Belgium . Switzerland . Other European . Total European U.S.A. India Japan Canada - . Others ' ' . i. Total Non-European . WORLD'S TOTAL .
55,653 11,186 7,400 9,213
4.909
4,600 2,000 1,492 1.398 1,658
3.667
1.355 806 487 (Inclu< 627 [Incluc 571 285 171 65 272
188 95
21
led u
154 ed un
>75 34 82
3 17
392 no 80
87 ider ]
, 3 1 der A
19 20
i 29 i
H.I
47 29
I.9I.3 Russia
23 ustna
25 19 3
i
24
4,274 1,700
1,010
2,508 837
790
358 257 98
314
56,900 5,620 7.36o
989
1,603
4,340 1, 800 1,467 1,460
1,815
2,891 382 671
& 61
a
86 549 305 159 57 272
56 79
r 57
Iowa
12
"Josta 8
147 40
73 6
24
429
16
79
tisti'
tisti I 36 25
2 2O
137
44
"L 24 ^
20 I I
15
3,513 521 822
73
98
740 390 235 84 3U
56,352 6,561 7,000 750 1,418 1,140
3,584 4,506 1, 806 1,591 1,531 1,844
1,091
272 314
44
21
89 302 138 70 29 133
23
102
34 6
21
17 III
34 56
4 15
46 20
22 673
6 I
2
4 i I
33
I,3'2 43 395 674
58 44 no 429 1 80 128 42 181
99,509
8,306
823
772
2,245
12,146
83,354
5,433
502
599
253
6,787
88,083
2,503
423
809
3,956
3L505 6,084 2,300
855 3,200
5.553 94 425 "3 16
2,081 993
20 1 i 16
14
32 i
155 1,091
5.786
2,177 1.589
"3
1,121
35499 6,420
3,155 68 1 4,170
6,010 o-S 709 118
12 2,032 1,150
243
4
'21 268
160
10
204 1,480
6,425 2,046 2,084 118 1,480
36,051 6,763 3,804 1,100
- 2,470
2,221 I
337 78 5
5 1,109
723
2
58 2
7
2
39 1 08
36
2 46
369
2,320 1,114
1,113 80
4'5
43.944
6,201
3.074
232
1,279
10,786
49.925
6,837
3.194
1.854
12,153
50,188
2,642
1,839
453
5,042
143.453
14.507
3. 8 97
i ,004
3,524
22,932
133.279
12,270
3.696
867
2,107
lS,<)40
138,271
5,145
2,262
329
1,262
8,998
- No statistics for China. Estimated total spindles, over 1,600,000; consumption in 1920, 690,000 bales of sundries.
