belief does not depend on general probabilities alone. In ancient literary references to the Attic drama of the fifth century B.C. we sometimes find that the name of a single tragedy is associated with a poet's victory or defeat. For example, (1) the Argument to the Philoctetes says: "It was performed in the archonship of Glaucippus. Sophocles was first." (2) In an Argument to the Antigone we read: "They say that Sophocles was appointed to the strategia which he held at Samos, because he had distinguished himself by the production of the Antigone." (3) The Argument to the Hippolytus says: "It was performed in the archonship of Epameinon. Euripides was first." (4) Plato, in the Symposium (p. 173 A), speaks of the occasion when "Agathon conquered with his first tragedy." (5) Aristides (ii. 256) expresses his surprise that Philocles won the prize against the Oedipus Tyrannus; and thus implies that this play alone might well have ensured success. Such passages have been cited in support of the view that these plays were produced singly. (6) But Aristophanes, in the Ranae, makes Aeschylus speak of having composed the Seven against Thebes (1021), and of having exhibited the Persae (1026); it is known, however, that in each case the play formed part of a tetralogy. It was natural for Aristophanes to write thus, because the Seven against Thebes and the Persae stood out before his mind as the most striking plays in their respective tetralogies. And so, when the custom of unconnected tragedies had
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