UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE
(U) Appendix C: Expressions of Likelihood
(U) Phrases such as "the FBI judges" and "the FBI assesses," and terms such as "likely" and "probably" convey analytical judgments and assessments. The chart below approximates how expressions of likelihood and probability correlate with percentages of chance. Only terms of likelihood should appear- in FBI products; the chart includes terms of probability strictly for comparison, as they sometimes appear in reporting of other government agencies. Furthermore, the FBI does not arrive at judgments through statistical analysis; and will not use terms of probability to convey uncertainty in external FBI intelligence products.
UNCLASSIFIED
| Terms of Likelihood | Almost No Chance | Very Unlikely | Unlikely | Roughly Even Chance | Likely | Very Likely | Almost Certain(ly) |
| Terms of Probability | Remote | Highly Improbable | Improbable (Improbably) | Roughly Even Odds | Probable (Probably) | Highly Probable | Nearly Certain |
| 1–5% | 5–20% | 20–45% | 45–55% | 55–80% | 80–95% | 95–99% |
UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE
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