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(U) Appendix A: Defining Conspiracy Theories
(U) Although many conspiracy theories appear benign or inconsequential, others create serious risks. Throughout history, such conspiracy theories have fueled prejudice, witch-hunts, genocide, and acts of terrorism.[1] In the context of domestic terrorism, extremists often view the activities of alleged conspirators as an existential threat that can only be stopped through drastic, or even violent means. The definitions and notes below are meant to inform discussions within law enforcement as they relate to potentially harmful conspiracy theories and domestic extremism.
(U) A conspiracy theory is an attempt to explain events or circumstances as the result of a group of actors working in secret to benefit themselves at the expense of others.[2] Conspiracy theories typically allege wrongdoing by powerful others (for example, public officials, business executives, scientists) or societally marginalized groups (for example, Muslims, Jews), and are most prevalent among individuals with extreme political views.[3] Some conspiracy theories point to weak circumstantial evidence, but ignore stronger evidence that would refute their claims.[4][5] Consequently, they are usually at odds with official or prevailing explanations of events.[6] While a conspiracy theory refers to an allegation that may or may not be true, a conspiracy is a true causal chain of events. Real conspiracies involving illegal, antidemocratic, or harmful activities by high-level government officials and political elites have been exposed in the past and it has been argued that such plots have encouraged conspiracism in society.[7]
(U) Relying on the premises that nothing happens by accident, nothing is as it seems, and everything is connected, conspiracy theorists tend to view every bad outcome as the result of an intentional decision by an evil actor, dismiss discontinuing evidence as "fabricated" by the conspirators, and connect a wide range of seemingly unrelated occurences to suggest a larger plot.[8] Despite sharing key characteristics and at times featuring similar themes and intersecting plots, conspiracy theories vary greatly in their scope. Some are narrowly focused on a particular event or set of events whereas others suggest broad, expansive narratives that link multiple conspiracies in complex ways to portray a group of evil actors working to manipulate society on a global scale.
- ↑ (U) Journal article; Advances in Political Psychology; "Understanding Conspiracy Theories"; 20 March 2019; p. 3; Journal is a peer reviewed academic journal. Author received pre-publication version of article on 30 January 2019.
- ↑ (U) Book; American Conspiracy Theories; 2014; p. 32; The authors are associate professors of political science at the University of Miami.
- ↑ (U) Journal article; Social Psychological and Personality Science, Volume 6, Issue 5; "Political Extremism Predicts Belief in Conspiracy Theories"; (2 January 2015; pp. 570–578; Journal is a peer-reviewed academic journal that covers research in social and personality psychology.
- ↑ (U) Paper; American Political Science Association Annual Meeting; "The Determinants of Belief in Conspiracy Theories"; 30 August 2012; p. 5; The American Political Science Association is a professional organization of scholars and researchers in the field of political science.
- ↑ (U) Working paper; George Washington University Program on Extremism; "Conspiracy Theories in the Patriot/Militia Movement"; May 2017; pp. 13–14; The George Washington University Program on Extremism provides analysis on issues related to violent and non-violent extremism.
- ↑ (U) Journal article; Diogenes, Volume 1, Issue 7; "Conspiracy Theories as Stigmatized Knowledge"; 25 October 2016; p. 2; Diogenes is a peer reviewed academic journal that publishes papers in the field of philosophy and the humanities.
- ↑ Book; Real Enemies: Conspiracy Theories and American Democracy, World War I to 9/11; 2009; pp. 1–12; The author is a professor of history at the University of California, Davis.
- ↑ Book; A Culture of Conspiracy: Apocalyptic Visions in Contemporary America, 2003; pp. 3–4, 6; The author is a leading expert on the subject and a professor of political science at Syracuse University.
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