oil well. What would the warships in the Tampico harbor do then?
Carranza is not making a serious effort to destroy Pelaez. The attitude of the Government of the United States justifies a fear that such an effort would result in another invasion "to protect American lives and property." The secret of the security of Pelaez is revealed. It is the same as the secret of the postponement of the application of the oil decrees. The cat is out of the bag. By our threat of force we have not only halted the economic program of the Mexican revolution, but have stopped its military operations against the bandits. American intervention is already here. It holds Carranza in a dilemma where there seems to be no choice except between defensive war and surrender to the authority of the Wilson Administration to dictate Mexican oil legislation.
Again, the word of the oil men is confirmed by an official explanation of our arms embargo, given by our Ambassador, Mr. Fletcher, recently. The argument is the same as that of all interventionists, that if we permitted arms to go to Carranza they would be "more apt" to be used against us than against bandits. It amounts to a confession that if Carranza does not yield in the matter of oil legislation we intend to give him a chance to defend Mexico against us.
To make sure that Carranza may not procure the arms with which to defend Mexico against us, we have even sought, by diplomatic representation, to prevent their export to Mexico from other countries. This is itself an offense which, were the tables reversed, would probably be considered by our cheerful jingoes as good cause for a Declaration of War.
The word of the oil men is confirmed by other circumstances still. Something happened at Paris. Exactly what happened at Paris may forever remain "an international secret" (to employ the President's own phrase) of the President's open diplomacy.
But we know a few things which may form the basis of a reasonable guess. At the end of January (1919) a committee representing the National Association for the Protection of American Rights in Mexico in general, and the copper and oil interests in particular, sailed for Europe. The committee was
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