Annex A:Covid-19
- The Committee questioned whether there is any intelligence or intelligence assessment on the origins of the outbreak. What the Intelligence Community told us appeared to be not too dissimilar to the assessment made by the US Intelligence Community in 2020: that it is highly likely that SARS-CoV2 (the virus which causes Covid-19) is naturally occurring—as opposed to a laboratory-acquired infection or one manufactured as an offensive or defensive weapon, and it is likely that the first human infection originated from a natural human–animal interaction unconnected to a laboratory. They also told us that it does not appear that the virus was manufactured or intentionally spread by China. Having been tasked to look for intelligence on the origins of the virus, GCHQ told us that ***.[1] The Intelligence Community said that:
- In response to global speculation—and perhaps in an effort to shape its global image—China has attempted to "sow seeds of doubt about the origins of the virus, to try and get its audiences in its own terms to believe that China was not at fault".[4] Chinese diplomats and officials have, alongside state media, repeatedly reiterated that the virus may have originated outside China, and have claimed that the US is a more likely source. [5] There are no credible sources that support this assertion, and the general consensus remains that the virus originated in Wuhan. We were told that, while it is difficult to determine the exact location of the first infection, it is unlikely that Covid-19 originated from a laboratory-acquired infection or accidental release from a laboratory. Even if it did, it is highly likely the original source was a natural pathogen. However, HMG noted that:
- It may be that neither the UK Intelligence Community nor our Five Eyes partners will ever be able to confirm the origin of Covid-19. While this is both expected and understandable, there nonetheless remain significant benefits in attempting to determine the origin of Covid-19, principally to inform our responses to future pandemics and develop preventative measures.
- China's deliberate obstruction of international efforts in this regard is inexcusable. In May 2020, it was reported that China would refuse access to investigators until the pandemic
- ↑ Oral evidence—GCHQ, *** October 2020.
- ↑ Written evidence—HMG, 18 November 2020.
- ↑ HMG subsequently advised the Committee that the evidence provided was inaccurate and that the penultimate sentence should read ***.
- ↑ Oral evidence—GCHQ, *** October 2020.
- ↑ '"American Coronavirus": China pushes propaganda casting doubt on virus origin', The Guardian, 13 March 2020.
- ↑ JIO assessments are measured on 'confidence' and 'probability'. The 'probability yardstick' states how likely something is: up to 5% (i.e. a 1 in 20 chance) is a 'remote' chance; 10–20% (between 1 in 10 and 1 in 20) is 'highly unlikely'; 25–35% (1 in 4 to 1 in 3) is 'unlikely'; 40–50% (2 in 5 to 1 in 2) is a 'realistic possibility'; 55–75% (5 in 9 to 3 in 4) is 'likely or probable'; 80–90% (4 in 5 or 9 in 10) is 'highly likely'; and 95–100% (19 in 20) is 'almost certain'. 'Low' confidence means that reports are based on fragmentary, ambiguous and/or contradictory source material; 'medium' or 'moderate' confidence reports will have elements of corroboration, based on quality material but have key gaps, concerns or weaknesses; and 'high' confidence means that reports are based on a range of good-quality sources, potentially with some corroboration.
- ↑ Written evidence—HMG, 7 June 2021.
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