This paper does not represent US Government views.
This table is UNCLASSIFIED.
Table 1: Regional averages of temperature and precipitation projections from a set of 21 global models in the MMD for the A1B scenario for the region of Northern Asia (NAS: 50°N, 40°E: 70°N, 180°E). The table shows the minimum, maximum, median (50 percent), and 25 and 75 percent quartile values among the 21 models, for temperature (°C) and precipitation (percent) change. The changes are calculated as the 2080-2099 mean with respect to the 1980-1999 mean. DJF=December January February, MAM= March April May, JJA=June July August, SON=September October November. Source: Table 11.1 in IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]. Climate Change 2007: the Physical Science Basis, ed. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, M. Marquis, K. Averyt, M.M.B. Tignor, H.L. Jr. Miller, and Z. Chen (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007).
Maximum temperature increases are expected to occur in the winter in the Arctic.xxii By the middle of the 21st century, temperatures are projected to rise as much as 4-5°C in the Arkhangelsk region, the Komi Republic, the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area, and over Taimyr.xxiii Temperature increases in the summer in these regions are small. However, in the southern regions, such as in the Northern Caucasus, the Volga region, and in the south of Western Siberia, an increase of 2–3°C is projected.
According to an assessment done by the World Wildlife Fund (2008),xxiv an appreciable increase in winter precipitation totals is expected by 2050—notably, a 30 percent increase on the Taymyr Peninsula and a 15-20 percent increase in Chukotka and the Barents Sea region. This increase in precipitation is expected to continue throughout the second half of the century. Total precipitation will more than double current values in the eastern Russian Arctic, consequently forming a deep layer of snow and reducing the period of soil freeze in winter. Alternatively, summer precipitation totals will increase only 5-10 percent by 2050, and 10-20 percent by the end of the 21st century, with the increase being slightly larger in the eastern part of the Arctic. An increase in the frequency of heavy rainfall is forecasted for the same region, effectively accelerating coastline erosion. Throughout the Arctic, there will be more rainfall than evaporation, despite predicted increases in evaporation due to warming.xxv The result is the formation of bogs[1], more likely prominent along the central and eastern Arctic coast.
Trends of wintertime snow mass accumulation vary over the country. In European Russia (that is, Russia east of the Urals) and south of Western Siberia snow mass is expected to decrease compared with long-term mean values. By 2015 a 10-15 percent decrease is expected. In most of
the rest of Russia, snow accumulation is expected to increase by 2-4 percent.xxvi
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This paper does not represent US Government views.
- ↑ According to the US Environmental Protection Agency, bogs are “characterized by spongy peat deposits, acidic waters, and a floor covered by a thick carpet of sphagnum moss. Bogs receive all or most of their water from precipitation rather than from runoff, groundwater or streams. As a result, bogs are low in the nutrients needed for plant growth, a condition that is enhanced by acid forming peat mosses.” See http://www.epa.gov/owow/wetlands/types/bog.html .
