This paper does not represent US Government views.
capital, Moscow. Only a modest trickle-down effect has occurred in smaller cities, and virtually none has occurred in rural areas. Most of the impacts of climate change will manifest themselves in smaller cities and in the Russian countryside.
Another consideration that relates to the advance of climate change impacts is the role of the government in people’s everyday lives. During Soviet times, government was highly intrusive but simultaneously was the source of considerable private skepticism. (“We pretend to work; they pretend to pay us,” was one of the core folk wisdoms.) Government did, however, provide services that ensured a minimum standard of living for nearly all citizens. In today’s Russia, many people have arguably even less expectation that the government will provide for their minimum requirements. But if climate change begins to wreak serious humanitarian impacts, such as recurrent massive flooding or the collapse of aging infrastructure, and if the government is not in a position to respond in a commensurate way, one of the key questions will be whether climate change prompts political unrest. For the time being, we judge this to be a significant, but unresolvable open question.
Energy Systems
The stable operation of energy systems is a major technological challenge for a country as massive as Russia. It is also a matter of vital importance to everyday Russians, whose day-to-day survival depends on the timely availability of heat and power in the face of Russia’s severe climate. Energy systems are no less of a matter of survival for the Russian economy, which stays afloat largely due to petroleum exports. For these reasons, the impacts of climate change on Russian energy systems are of exceptionally great importance.
The seasonality and geographical scope of climate change across Russia have significant implications for Russian changing energy demand between now and 2030. As is mentioned above, mean temperature increase in Russia by 2030 is projected to be significant nationwide, although more pronounced in the north and east of the country than in the south and west, and more pronounced in winter and spring than in the summer or fall.lix
As shown in Figure 4, the projected climate warming is expected to lead to a reduction in the length and intensity of the heating season, which has the potential to result in reduced energy consumption for heating. Roshydromet projects that on average, by 2015, the heating season will be three to five days shorter across the entire country.lx In the eastern regions of Primorskiy Kray, Sakhalin, and Kamchatka, the heating season may be more than five days shorter by 2015. Some regions may experience little if any reduction in the length of the heating season. These trends are projected to extend and intensify by 2030 and beyond.
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This paper does not represent US Government views.
