Page:Journal of the Asiatic Society of Bengal Vol 1.djvu/324

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382
Estimate of the Risk of Life
[July,

(1),in the first year, being together 6; also the appointments of the year 1831 (29), which could not be included in the computation, unless the year 1832 were brought in. The number, therefore, of Civil Servants appointed between 1790 and 1831, who were in the condition to abide the chance of life for a first year, commencing from the 1st January after their appointment, was 905. Our table assumes 904, because there was one retirement in the year we are reviewing; and, as those who retire give the risk of their lives only for the broken period before their departure, the number of persons on the register on the 1st January requires correction on their account. It is assumed, that retiring servants give, on the average, the risk of their lives for half the year in which they retire; accordingly deduction is made, from the registered numbers on the 1st January, of half the number of the retirements between that date and the 31st December following. Where the number is uneven, as in this case being one, the deduction is made alternately to include or reject the unit. We thus begin with 904 lives, of which the proportion of deaths in the first year was 17, being in the ratio of 188 out of 10,000. For the computation of the ratio in the second year, we have the 905 men of the first year, minus the whole number of retirements (1), and deaths (17), in the course of that year, and minus also the appointments of 1830, which were 25, that is, 905—43 or 862. Of this number of registered servants on the 1st January of the second year, four retired in the course of the year: deducting two, therefore, for the diminished risk upon their lives, the number 862 stands corrected to 860, of which number 21 died in the year, being in the ratio of 244 out of 10,000. A separate value has thus been computed for each year of life in India, from the first to the thirtieth inclusive; after which the number of registered servants becomes too small to afford results at all trust-worthy. Before we proceed to the tables exhibiting the estimate of the value of life for each year, formed on this principle, it will be proper to exhibit separately the precise number of survivors in India, on the first of January of each year of their service; it being my purpose, as above explained, to compare these numbers, not with the original appointments as in the table of the Gleanings, but with the deaths of the year then commencing. I shall presently explain why no correct result could be extracted, from a comparison of the survivors with the number of original appointments, or even with that of arrivals in India. See Table, No. II.

Taking the table of survivors as the material for calculation, the ratio of deaths is exhibited for each year in the table which follows, No. III. The same ratio is reduced to a decimal proportion upon 10,000, for more ready deduction of the average of each five years, and for comparison with the tables of Europe. The number of deaths assum-