(U) Foreign Threats to the 2022 US Elections
ICA 2022-27259-A
Key Judgment 1: The IC assesses that China tacitly approved efforts to try to influence a handful of midterm races involving members of both US political parties.People’s Republic of China (PRC) intelligence officers, diplomats, and other influence actors probably viewed some election influence activities as consistent with Beijing’s standing guidance to counter US politicians viewed as anti-China and to support others viewed as pro-China. We have high confidence in this assessment. PRC leaders most likely see their growing efforts to magnify US societal divisions as a response to what they believe is an intensified US effort to promote democracy at China’s expense.
Key Judgment 2: The IC assesses that Iran’s influence activities reflected its intent to exploit perceived social divisions and undermine confidence in US democratic institutions during this election cycle. We assess that Tehran relied primarily on its intelligence services and Iran-based online influencers to conduct its covert operations. We have moderate confidence in this assessment. Tehran’s efforts during the midterms probably in part reflected resource limitations because of competing priorities and the need to manage internal unrest.
Key Judgment 3: The IC assesses that the Russian Government and its proxies sought to denigrate the Democratic Party before the midterm elections and undermine confidence in the election, most likely to undermine US support for Ukraine. We have high confidence in this assessment. Elements of the Kremlin and its intelligence services conducted extensive research and analysis of US audiences to inform their election-related efforts, including identifying target demographics and the narratives and platforms that they perceived would appeal to these audiences, reflecting some of the IC’s most explicit reporting to date on Russia’s US-focused influence operations.
Key Judgment 4: The IC assesses that a range of additional foreign actors took some steps to try to undermine US politicians seeking reelection. Their preferences varied and some of these efforts probably were smaller in scale and more narrowly targeted than the activities conducted by China, Iran, and
Russia.
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