CLIMATE CHANGE: THE FISCAL RISKS FACING THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
1. Crop Insurance
The Federal fiscal burden of providing subsidized crop insurance to American farmers could increase by billions of dollars each year by late-century due to the effects of climate change. The figure depicts estimated percentage increases in total premium subsidies in 2080 in an unmitigated climate change scenario compared to a future characterized by historical weather patterns. Estimates are graphed for three crops under five global change models.[1]
Climate Change and Crop Insurance
Climate change is already affecting agricultural production and negative impacts are, on average, expected to grow more severe over the course of this century. Some effects may be positive—higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere tend to increase plant growth (so-called “CO2 fertilization”) and water-use efficiency. However, negative effects from increased extreme heat and drought, more intense precipitation and soil erosion, growing stress from disease and pests, shifting soil moisture and water availability for irrigation, and higher concentrations of ozone are generally expected to outweigh
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- ↑ The Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM), Community Climate System Model (CCSM), Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2), Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), and Goddard Institute for Space Studies model (GISS) are global change models from the framework of models used by the IPCC to assess future changes in climate conditions in different emissions scenarios.
