NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011
Encl No. 1
Desp. No. 278
From Saigon
"You must remember we will be in Saigon tomorrow, we will be in Saigon tomorrow," these words were spoken by Premier Pham van Dong in a conversation with French Consul Georges-Picot on September 12, 1959.
In November, Pham van Dong twice told Canadian Commissioner Erichsen-Brown that "we will drive the Americans into the Sea." DRV General GIAP, however, later saw Erichsen-Brown to "reassure" him that DRV intentions are peaceful. (Erichsen-Brown has been very active in trying to get the ICC to take cognizance of the VC guerrilla activities).
CAS sources have reported a gradual increase of the infiltration of VC cadres and arms from the DRV over the past few months which has increased the VC strength to about 3000 in the Southwest. (Based on available information CAS estimates that the Viet Cong strength in all South Vietnam is presently 3000–5000 men). Many of these new infiltrators, according to a CAS source who is a GVN official, are cadres who were regrouped in the North at the time of the Geneva Accords and have had a number of years of intensive military and political training. The principal infiltration route of VC cadres from the North continues to be through Laos to Cambodia although reports are received of infiltration by sea. A CAS source with similar access reports that some of the cadres arriving in SVN from the North have the mission of establishing a VC headquarters to include a general staff, a political section and a supply section and to effect a large-scale reorganization of VC cadres in the southwestern provinces (Fifth Military Region).
According to a CAS report from a Western observer based on his limited personal observation, the People's Army of Vietnam (PAVN) has continued to train its units in guerrilla type warfare in addition to training in conventional warfare. In the opinion of this Western observer, the PAVN could at any time undertake a successful campaign against the GVN utilizing the type of guerrilla tactics undertaken so effectively by the Viet Minh against the French in the IndoChina War. Another Western observer, a missionary who resided over thirty years in Vietnam, has also stated that PAVN is in excellent condition to carry on guerrilla warfare.
SECRET-NOFORN
