NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011 TOP SECRET – Sensitive
way. That is because he cannot. It is politically naive to expect it. He senses that he cannot let power go because he would be thrown out. He may disguise this even from himself with the statement that lacks effective subordinates but the circumstance remains unchanged. He probably senses that his greatest danger is from the Army. Hence the reform that will bring effective use of his manpower, though the most urgent may be the most improbable.
The political reforms are even more unlikely but the issue is academic. Once the image of a politician is fixed, whether among opposition intellectuals or peasants, it is not changed. Nor do politicians change themselves. Diem's image would not be changed by his taking in other non-Communists, initiating some social reforms or otherwise meeting the requirements of our demarche.
However having started on this hopeless game we have no alternative, but to play it out for a minimum time. Those who think there is hope or reform will have to be persuaded.
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It is a cliche that there is no alternative to Diem's regime. This is politically naive. Where one man has dominated the scene for good or ill there never seems to be. No one considered Truman an alternative to Roosevelt. There is none for Nehru. There was none I imagine for Rhee. This is an optical illusion arising from the fact that the eye is fixed on the visible figures. It is a better rule that nothing succeeds like successors.
We should not be alarmed by the Army as an alternative. It would buy time and get a fresh dynamic. It is not ideal; civilian rule is ordinarily more durable and more saleable to the world.
