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quodque ſolum, certa nitri ſigna præbere, ſed plura concurrere debere, ut de vero nitro producto dubium non relinquatur.

LII. An Eſſay towards ſolving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances. By the late Rev. Mr. Bayes, F. R. S. communicated by Mr. Price, in a Letter to John Canton, A. M. F. R. S.

Dear Sir,

Read Dec. 23, 1763

I Now ſend you an eſſay which I have found among the papers of our deceaſed friend Mr. Bayes, and which, in my opinion, has great merit, and well deſerves to be preſerved. Experimental philoſophy, you will find, is nearly intereſted in the ſubject of it; and on this account there ſeems to be particular reaſon for thinking that a communication of it to the Royal Society cannot be improper.

He had, you know, the honour of being a member of that illuſtrious Society, and was much eſteemed by many in it as a very able mathematician. In an introduction which he has writ to this Eſſay, he ſays, that his deſign at firſt in thinking on the ſubject of it was, to find out a method by which we might judge concerning the probability that an event has to happen, in given circumſtances, upon ſuppofition that we know nothing concerning it but that, under the ſame circum-