Page:Philosophical Transactions - Volume 053.djvu/480

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drawn in a given time to the number of prizes drawn, is continually increaſing as theſe numbers increaſe; and that therefore, when they are conſiderably large, this concluſion may be looked upon as morally certain. By parity of reaſon, it follows univerſally, with reſpect to every event about which a great number of experiments has been made, that the cauſes of its happening bear the ſame proportion to the cauſes of its failing, with the number of happenings to the number of failures; and that, if an event whoſe cauſes are ſuppoſed to be known, happens oftener or ſeldomer than is agreeable to this concluſion, there will be reaſon to believe that there are ſome unknown cauſes which diſturb the operations of the known ones. With reſpect, therefore, particularly to the courſe of events in nature, it appears, that there is demonſtrative evidence to prove that they are derived from permanent cauſes, or laws originally eſtabliſhed in the conſtitution of nature in order to produce that order of events which we obſerve, and not from any of the powers of chance[1]. This is juſt as evident as it would be, in the caſe I have inſiſted on, that the reaſon of drawing 10 times more blanks than prizes in millions of trials, was, that there were in the wheel about ſo many more blanks than prizes.

But to proceed a little further in the demonſtration of this point.

We have ſeen that ſuppoſing a perſon, ignorant of the whole ſcheme of a lottery, ſhould be led to conjecture, from hearing 100 blanks and 10 prizes drawn,

  1. See Mr. De Moivre’s Doctrine of Chances, pag. 250.