Page:Stabilizing the dollar, Fisher, 1920.djvu/241

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Sec. 9, A]
TECHNICAL DETAILS
187

be reduced in weight 1%. The influence of this adjustment will now be 1% upward, counteracted, however, by the 1% tendency to fall, still assumed to exist. That is, the next index number will be 99 plus the 1% influence less the 1% tendency, or 99 + 1 - 1 = 99; and it will, thereafter, remain 99 as long as the tendency to fall continues.

Assuming, to fix our ideas, that the reversal from an upward to a downward movement occurs at the point at which the index number would have reached 200 had there been no stabilization, the index numbers in successive adjustment intervals are given (omitting decimals) in the following table as they would be, both without and with stabilization.


Without Stabilization With Stabilization
100 100
101 (100 - 1 + 1 =) 101
102 (101 - 1 + 1 =) 101
103 (101 - 1 + 1 =) 101
104 (101 - 1 + 1 =) 101
150 (101 - 1 + 1 =) 101
151½ (101 - 1 + 1 =) 101
153 (101 - 1 + 1 =) 101
154½ (101 - 1 + 1 =) 101
198 (101 - 1 + 1 =) 101
200 (101 - 1 + 1 =) 101
198 (101 - 1 - 1 =) 099
196 (99 + 1 - 1 =) 099
194 (99 + 1 - 1 =) 099
etc. etc.etc.


From the standard hypothetical case, just calculated, experimental departures will be made in order to determine what set of rules will serve best in controlling price movements, as they are actually experienced.