been upward until to-day. Between 1896 and 1914 before the outbreak of war, the index number of the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a rise of about 50%. Substantially the same rise occurred in Canada; while in the United Kingdom there was a rise of 35%.
4. Price Movements during the Great War
In the still further and more recent rise of prices the Great War has been the dominant factor. Its first effect was a speculative rise. Sudden and arbitrary speculative "mark-ups" of prices usually accompany war, and the mark-up in 1914, like most others, was temporary. It reached its maximum in the United States in September, 1914. As soon as it became clear that market conditions would not justify it (and this became clear after about a month) speculators were forced to reduce prices again and, until near the close of 1915, no great rise in prices occurred in the United States. From the close of 1915, however, the rise has been far more rapid than before. The rise of wholesale prices before the war, between 1896 and 1914, great as it was, amounted, in the aggregate, in the United States to only ⅕ of 1% per month, and in England, to still less; whereas, during the war, the rise amounted to 1½% per month in the United States, and to much more in many other countries—in Germany and Austria, to 3% per month, and in Russia, apparently, to 4% or 5% per month.
To these German and Russian rates there is no parallel among the records of index numbers which have been computed. If before the war we could become
