Page:Technical Support Document - Social Cost of Carbon, Methane and Nitrous Oxide Interim Estimates under Executive Order 13990.pdf/25

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full set of annual SC-GHG values between 2020 and 2050, calculated using linear interpolation between the numbers shown in Tables 1–3, is reported in the Appendix and the full set of model results are available on the OMB website.^[1] The SC-GHG estimates increase over time within the models – i.e., the societal harm from one metric ton emitted in 2030 is higher than the harm caused by one metric ton emitted in 2025 – because future emissions produce larger incremental damages as physical and economic systems become more stressed in response to greater climatic change, and because GDP is growing over time and many damage categories are modeled as proportional to GDP.

**Table 1: Social Cost of CO₂, 2020 – 2050 (in 2020 dollars per metric ton of CO₂)**^[2]
	Discount Rate and Statistic
Emissions Year	5% Average	3% Average	2.5% Average	3% 95^th Percentile
2020	14	51	76	152
2025	17	56	83	169
2030	19	62	89	187
2035	22	67	96	206
2040	25	73	103	225
2045	28	79	110	242
2050	32	85	116	260

**Table 2: Social Costs of CH₄, 2020 – 2050 (in 2020 dollars per metric ton of CH₄)**
	Discount Rate and Statistic
Emissions Year	5% Average	3% Average	2.5% Average	3% 95^th Percentile
2020	670	1500	2000	3900
2025	800	1700	2200	4500
2030	940	2000	2500	5200
2035	1100	2200	2800	6000
2040	1300	2500	3100	6700
2045	1500	2800	3500	7500
2050	1700	3100	3800	8200

↑ https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-regulatory-affairs/regulatory-matters/#scghgs
↑ The values reported in this TSD are identical to those reported in the 2016 TSD adjusted for inflation to 2020 dollars using the annual GDP Implicit Price Deflator values in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) NIPA Table 1.1.9: 113.626 (2020)/ 92.486 (2007) = 1.228575 (U.S. BEA 2021). The IWG combined the distributions across models and socioeconomic emissions scenarios for each of three discount rates (2.5%, 3%, and 5%), plus a fourth value, selected as the 95th percentile of estimates based on a 3 percent discount rate. Values of SC-CO₂ are rounded to the nearest dollar; SC-CH₄ and SC-N₂O are rounded to two significant figures. The annual unrounded estimates are available on OMB’s website for use in regulatory and other analyses: https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-regulatory-affairs/regulatory-matters/#scghgs.

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[1] ttps://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-regulatory-affairs/regulatory-matters/#scghgs

[2] The values reported in this TSD are identical to those reported in the 2016 TSD adjusted for inflation to 2020 dollars using the annual GDP Implicit Price Deflator values in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) NIPA Table 1.1.9: 113.626 (2020)/ 92.486 (2007) = 1.228575 (U.S. BEA 2021). The IWG combined the distributions across models and socioeconomic emissions scenarios for each of three discount rates (2.5%, 3%, and 5%), plus a fourth value, selected as the 95th percentile of estimates based on a 3 percent discount rate. Values of SC-CO₂ are rounded to the nearest dollar; SC-CH₄ and SC-N₂O are rounded to two significant figures. The annual unrounded estimates are available on OMB’s website for use in regulatory and other analyses: https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-regulatory-affairs/regulatory-matters/#scghgs.

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