Page:Technical Support Document - Social Cost of Carbon, Methane and Nitrous Oxide Interim Estimates under Executive Order 13990.pdf/37

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6Path Forward

E.O. 13990 reaffirms that “[a]n accurate social cost is essential for agencies to accurately determine the social benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions when conducting cost-benefit analyses of regulatory and other actions” (E.O. 13990 2021). The E.O. instructs the IWG to publish interim SC-CO₂, SC-CH₄, and SC-N₂O estimates (collectively, SC-GHG estimates) within 30 days and to publish a set of final estimates by no later than January 2022.^[1] In doing so, the E.O. instructs the IWG to consider the recommendations of the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine as reported in Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide (2017) and other pertinent scientific literature; solicit public comment; engage with the public and stakeholders; seek the advice of ethics experts; and ensure that the SC-GHG estimates reflect the interests of future generations in avoiding threats posed by climate change.

In developing the SC-GHG estimates in 2010, 2013, and 2016 the IWG used consensus-based decision making, relied on peer-reviewed literature and models, and took steps to disclose limitations and incorporate new information by considering public comments and revising the estimates as updated research became available (U.S. GAO 2014). Going forward the IWG commits to maintaining a consensus driven process for making evidence-based decisions that are guided by the best available science and input from the public, stakeholders, and peer reviewers.

While the IWG assesses the current state of the science in each component of the SC-GHG modeling exercise, the IWG is beginning by asking for public comment on how best to incorporate the latest, peer reviewed science to develop an updated set of SC-GHG estimates. The IWG will soon issue a Federal Register notice with a detailed set of requests for public comments on the new information presented in this TSD, as well as other topics and issues the IWG will address as we develop the next set of updates. Among other things, the IWG will ask for public comment on how to incorporate the best available science in the updated SC-GHG estimates, due to be published by January 2022, and how to incorporate the recommendations of the National Academies (2017).

References

Anthoff, D., and J. Emmerling. 2019. Inequality and the Social Cost of Carbon. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists 6(2): 243-273.

Anthoff D, C. Hepburn, and R. Tol. 2009. Equity Weighting and the Marginal Damage Costs of Climate Change. Ecological Economics 68:836-849.

Anthoff, D., and Tol, R.S.J. 2010. On International Equity Weights and National Decisions Making on Climate Change. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 60(1): 14-20.

Anthoff, D. and Tol, R.S.J. 2013a. The uncertainty about the social cost of carbon: a decomposition analysis using FUND. Climatic Change 117: 515–530.

↑ The Executive Order also requests that the IWG assess the application of the SC-GHG to inform government decision making beyond regulations, in addition to recommending a robust long-term structure for ensuring the SC-GHGs continue to reflect the best available science and economic and that long-term research needs are met.

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[1] The Executive Order also requests that the IWG assess the application of the SC-GHG to inform government decision making beyond regulations, in addition to recommending a robust long-term structure for ensuring the SC-GHGs continue to reflect the best available science and economic and that long-term research needs are met.

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