completely than if they remained in some kind of confederation reduced to their own population of eight millions, and exceeded in numbers by the others. Consequently, they will fight with the utmost energy against real and effective federation.
The Austrian Germans, on their part, are even more incensed against political concessions, in the federalist sense, to the Slavs than the Germans of the Empire. They understand very well that the real federation of Austria would, as matters stand, give great predominance to the Slav element in opposition to the German, which is scattered in small fractions everywhere over the Slav territories, and which would necessarily be sacrificed to the majority principle. That is why the Austria-Germans have always been much more uncompromising towards the other nations in Austria-Hungary than the Germans of the Empire themselves, and also why they are now defending themselves against real federation and ready rather to separate from the Monarchy altogether. Thus it has been easy for the Germans and Magyars to make the ruling circles in Vienna understand that the plans of the Slavs—whether they aim at federation or at independence—mean the end of the Monarchy. All the more, every one knows that Galicia is from this day finally lost, even if the Emperor were to try a Slav federalist policy. It is clear at present that the Poles will not form part of a federal Austria, and the same thing is true of the Jugoslavs, who lean towards the Balkans, and finally of the Ruthenes, who after the secession of the Poles could not remain in Austria. The Czecho-Slovaks alone would remain in it. And what would their position be? Ten millions of Czecho-Slovaks beside twenty million Austro-Magyars; that is to say, a position infinitely more dangerous than before the war. In these circumstances they would not wish to remain in Austria-Hungary for anything in the world.
Again, to satisfy the Slavs and to initiate any process of constitutional reform inevitably opens the road to the dissolution of the Monarchy. The Germans, the Magyars, and the ruling classes thoroughly understand the position. They know that the Slavs cannot and will not yield. They know also that to attempt to establish a real federation would inevitably lead the uncontrolled force of the Slavs to strip their enemies first of all their privileges and then ultimately to quit the Monarchy. It is for that reason that they will try their utmost to hinder this federation, for it is less difficult to dismember the Empire than to federalize it in the Slav sense: for so long as it is a question of federalizing it, it is they who will have a voice in the matter, and having the power in their hands they will use it to prevent these changes.
The two dominant nations in Austria-Hungary at present are doing all they can to persuade the ruling classes that the sole possibility of saving Austria is to govern it with a strong hand, to make a display of concessions, but to preserve Austria as it is. If not, the Emperor is menaced by rebellion or by the indifference of these two loyalist nations, who would in such circumstances lose all interest in defending the Monarchy.
The dynasty is thus in a terrible dilemma—(1) Either the status quo with small modifications, in order to throw dust in the eyes of Europe; (2) Or the attempt to establish a true Slav federation, which will inevitably lead to the final dissolution of the Monarchy; for true federation would on the one hand let loose the revolt of the Germans and Magyars, and, on the other hand, it would fatally strengthen the separatist tendencies amongst the Slavs and would drive them finally to a complete and inevitable separation from the Monarchy. The Austro-Hungarian problem would thus appear to be insoluble.
The role of Germany in this impasse is worth watching. German tactics are curious and very skillful. Germany sees that two eventualities must be excluded: (1) In the first place, the present state of affairs, in which the oppressed nationalities make too much noise, which the Entente exploits against the Central Empires, and in which the Polish question no longer admits of adjournment, has become intolerable, and Germany, therefore, desires a modification of the present state with a view of bringing nearer a speedy and advantageous peace; (2) The Monarchy must not be dismembered, for the preservation of Austria is a vital German interest. The Prussian plan is to originate a so-called “federation” in Austria, with fairly wide provincial autonomy, certain concessions to the nationalities, and, if necessary, separation of the Poles and Italians from the Monarchy. But the preservation of the Monarchy is, above all else, necessary to Germany! And Germany begs
