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THE SPLENDID FUTURE
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reinforcing the army in the East and of keeping open the sea communications necessitate a larger military and naval budget, it might be argued that the balance was not in favour of the ruling nation.

But when we turn to the trade, the enormous value of the Indian dominion from an economic point of view becomes apparent. Of a gross trade which now approaches two hundred millions in value, the share of the United Kingdom was 40·5 per cent., exclusive of the very large supplies from Government departments and State railways, which are a British monopoly. Of the import trade, the United Kingdom accounted for 64·9 per cent., the nearest competitor being Germany, with 8·9 per cent. Our merchants and manufacturers do not need to be reminded of the value of this great market Nor are they forgetful that if another Power held the door it would be promptly closed to them. In India they have a fair field and no favour. If even a small preference were given to them they might monopolize the trade. Whether it would be for India's benefit to give an advantage to British trade is another matter. It is not my intention to offer an opinion on the question, which could not be discussed within the limits of this paper.

In conclusion, I would observe that in any scheme of Imperial federation India is bound to take a conspicuous place. Dependency though she is, she is a great country—a country whose greatness is growing. Although necessarily subordinate to the Home authority, the Governor-General in Council, which is the legal description of the Government of India, will, I am convinced, become yearly more independent as Indian interests are more clearly defined and public opinion, not only of the educated Indians, but of the resident Europeans and of the great English services, gains strength. It will become more and more impossible to impose on the Government of India any measure which is not conceived in her interests, or to over-rule, without refer-