Page:The invasion of the Crimea Vol. 4.djvu/248

218 TUK PREDICAMENT IXCURKED C u A I', bends over a plan of the roadstead, and marks out _ ^^^^' with ruler and pencil the scope of the fire from the forts as well as from the ships of the Paissians, he finds his radii converging so thickly ujion the mouth of the roadstead, and ujion the waters leading on towards the jIan-oi'-war Harbour, that even though no obstruction be su})posed like that uf sunken ships, he sees pointed out upon paper the assurance of ruin to a fleet which might strive to break in. Still it is of necessity that calcula- tions of this kind should leave unreckoned the effects which may be wrought by smoke, confu- sion, miracle ; by panic, by genius, by even that blind strength of will which in war sometimes gains over fortune ; and, rightly or wrongly, the always empirical English are accustomed to think that a forecast which needs must leave out all these perturbing elements has no conclusive worth. They like that the boundary of what is possible should be sought for liy actual trial — should be tixetl, so to speak, by exploring, instead of by mere calculation ; and it was hardly to be expected that their desire to have the experiment made would be Ijrought to an end by their learn- ing that the entrance to the roadstead had been closed by sunken ships; for the age was one in which physical obstacles had been much overcome by the art of the civil engineer ; and many who might not underrate the power of the enemy when engaged in active defence, were still somewhat 1 hjatli to believe that the heart's desire of a people who had made smooth their ways through uiuun-