the safe annual limit, on no account to be exceeded; but in 1867 it was proved, on equally cogent arguments, that 48,000 chests might safely be brought to market in all time to come, and the limit was raised accordingly.
25. So long as there is any uncertainty on this head, the pressure of the duty on Malwa opium must fluctuate, the profits of the Malwa and Bombay merchants must be precarious, and a special margin must be allowed for the risks of the capitalists who venture upon the traffic.
26. It is not pretended that any system could prevent great fluctuations of price. The crop is delicate and susceptible of injury; severe weather and hailstorms may unexpectedly destroy the prospects of a fair harvest. These natural causes must always expose the trade to considerable oscillation of supply and price. But it is not the less necessary to eliminate all other elements of disturbance that depend on the action of Government, and especially the arbitrary increase or decrease of the quantity brought to sale. This is a duty which, apart from all questions of revenue and prices realized in Calcutta, we owe to Malwa and Bombay. Everything should be avoided that tends to unsteady the market.
27. I am the more earnest in seeking that a satisfactory standard should be adopted for the adjustment of the Bombay rate of export duty, because in this course lies the only prospect of superseding the singular, and to my mind objectionable, arrangement under which the Bengal Government monopolizes the growth, manufacture, and sale of the drug. While in the Revenue Board of the North-West Provinces, I ventured repeatedly to bring the subject before Government, and to urge the expediency of substituting for the monopoly a system of export duty. Further consideration strengthens my conviction that an attempt should be made in that direction.
28. I am not insensible to the difficulties surrounding this question. Besides all other risks to the revenue, there is the danger of smuggling. This already exists to some considerable degree.[1] But if free or licensed cultivation be allowed in Malwa and Bombay without any practical risk of evasion along its extensive sea-board, I cannot see what greater risk there would be in Bengal. The growth of the poppy might still remain prohibited on this side Behar, and further security might be obtained by making the cultivation subject to license, as suggested by the Allahabad Board and Sir K. Hamilton.[2]
29. The grounds urged by Sir Charles Trevelyan in favour of the pass system, and of a Commission to inquire into the subject, in his Minute dated 12th November, 1864,[3] I submit, are deserving the serious consideration of the Government of India, and I earnestly hope that such a Commission may be constituted at an early date.
