SPC Mesoscale Discussion 1992

SPC Mesoscale Discussion 1992
Evan Bentley and Jeremy Grams with the United States Storm Prediction Center

The Storm Prediction Center’s meso-gamma mesoscale discussion #1992. This discussion was issued while the 2021 Tri-State tornado EF4 tornado was on the ground.

4462977SPC Mesoscale Discussion 1992Evan Bentley and Jeremy Grams with the United States Storm Prediction Center


  Mesoscale Discussion 1992
  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
  0741 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021
Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas...southern Missouri...northwest Tennessee...and southwest Kentucky.
Concerning...Tornado Watch 552...
Valid 110141Z - 110245Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 552 continues.
SUMMARY...A strong to potentially violent tornado is ongoing in far northeastern Arkansas and is expected to persist.
DISCUSSION...A mature and very strong supercell in northeast Arkansas is currently producing a very strong to potentially violent tornado. The downstream airmass remains very favorable with dewpoints near 70, strengthening/backing surface flow, and 0-1 km SRH in excess of 400 m2/s2 per KNQA VWP. This is yielding STP around 5.
Given the favorable downstream environment with no convection to disrupt this storm, expect the significant tornado threat to continue for at least a few more hours as this discrete, long-track supercell continues northeast.
..Bentley/Grams.. 12/11/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 35868917 35859018 35999035 36209014 36588927 36708865 36608832 36378812 36258832 35868917

This work is in the public domain in the United States because it is a work of the United States federal government (see 17 U.S.C. 105).

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