SPC Mesoscale Discussion 1992

by Evan Bentley and Jeremy Grams with the United States Storm Prediction Center

  Mesoscale Discussion 1992
  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
  0741 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

  Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas...southern Missouri...northwest
  Tennessee...and southwest Kentucky.

  Concerning...Tornado Watch 552...

  Valid 110141Z - 110245Z

  The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 552 continues.

  SUMMARY...A strong to potentially violent tornado is ongoing in far
  northeastern Arkansas and is expected to persist.

  DISCUSSION...A mature and very strong supercell in northeast
  Arkansas is currently producing a very strong to potentially 
  violent
  tornado. The downstream airmass remains very favorable with
  dewpoints near 70, strengthening/backing surface flow, and 0-1 km
  SRH in excess of 400 m2/s2 per KNQA VWP. This is yielding STP around
  5.
  Given the favorable downstream environment with no convection to
  disrupt this storm, expect the significant tornado threat to
  continue for at least a few more hours as this discrete, long-track
  supercell continues northeast.

  ..Bentley/Grams.. 12/11/2021

  ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

  ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35868917 35859018 35999035 36209014 36588927 36708865
              36608832 36378812 36258832 35868917