NASA Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena: Independent Study Team Report/Responses to Statement of Task

by National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Layout 2

RESPONSES TO STATEMENT OF TASK

1 What types of scientific data currently collected and archived by NASA or other civilian government entities should be synthesized and analyzed to potentially shed light on the nature and origins of Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP)?

FINDING
NASA'S fleet of earth-observing satellites should play a powerful supporting role to determine the environmental conditions that coincide with UAP.

NASA has a variety of existing and planned Earth- and space-observing assets, together with an extensive archive of historic and current data sets, which should be used to address the challenges of detecting and/or understanding UAP. NASA's fleet of Earth-observing satellites collect the most data within the Earth system, yet they typically lack the spatial resolution to detect relatively small objects such as UAP. However, they still should play a powerful supporting role to determine the environmental conditions that coincide with UAP. For example, the advanced sensors on the Terra and Aqua missions should be directly utilized to retroactively probe the state of the local earth, ocean, and atmospheric conditions that are spatially and temporally coincident with UAP initially detected via other methods. Thus, NASA can help determine whether specific environmental factors are associated with reported UAP properties or occurrences.

FINDING
It is essential to note the pivotal role that structured data curation plays in a rigorous and evidence-based framework to better understand UAP.

There are other promising civilian capabilities that can be employed to scrutinize UAP. Assets such as the NEXRAD Doppler radar network (160 weather radars jointly operated by the FAA, U.S. Air Force, and National Weather Service) or the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites will be essential for distinguishing interesting objects from airborne clutter. Furthermore, forthcoming large-sky surveys enabled by ground-based telescopes such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory will offer powerful complements in the search for anomalous objects beyond the Earth's atmosphere.

NASA also has substantial experience in Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), which can provide much higher angular resolution images of Earth, as well as confirm surface motion and change. The panel sees particular promise in future SAR-based Earth-observing satellites such as NISAR (NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar) mission, a partnership with the Indian Space Research Organization. The excellent resolution of NISAR will provide valuable radar data that will potentially be critical for examining UAP directly, in addition to their environmental context. SAR systems will also provide critical validation of any truly anomalous properties, such as rapid acceleration or high-G maneuvers through the Doppler signatures they produce.

Irrespective of the source of the observation, it is essential to note the pivotal role that structured data curation plays in a rigorous and evidence-based framework to better understand UAP. To date, UAP data often consist of observations initially acquired for other purposes, which often lack adequate metadata and are not optimized for systematic scientific analysis. Here, NASA–with its world-leading expertise in curation, archiving, and distribution of large volumes of data–can play a key role. NASA's adherence to FAIR (Findability, Accessibility, Interoperability and Reusability) data principles when generating curated data repositories enables both scientists and citizen scientists to conduct data-mining and meaningful analysis. In addition, due to the absence of a comprehensive system for gathering civilian UAP reports, there are inconsistencies in how data is collected, processed, and curated. The application of NASA's rigor to UAP data protocols will ultimately be essential for a detailed understanding of these phenomena.

South Asian Object (Image 1) Footage taken by an MQ-9 of an unidentified object in South Asia with an apparent atmospheric wake or cavitation, later assessed as a likely commercial aircraft by the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office. The cavitation is likely a sensor artifact resulting from video compression. The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.

2 What types of scientific data currently collected and held by non-profits and companies should be synthesized and analyzed to potentially shed light on the nature and origins of UAP?

FINDING
The U.S. commercial remote-sensing industry offers a potent mix of Earth-observing sensors that have the collective potential to directly resolve UAP events.

The U.S. commercial remote-sensing industry offers a potent mix of Earth-observing sensors that have the collective potential to directly resolve UAP events. For instance, commercial satellite constellations provide imagery at sub- to several-meter spatial resolution, which is well-matched to the typical spatial scales of known UAP. In addition, the high temporal cadence offered by commercial remote-sensing networks can substantially increase the likelihood of providing retroactive coverage of UAP events that are initially observed via other means. The limitation on this data is that at any given time most of the Earth's surface is not covered by commercial satellites at high resolution—for a particular UAP event, we will need to be fortunate to obtain high-resolution observations from space.

Beyond this, the panel applauds the efforts undertaken in the private sector and U.S. academic community to employ one or more inexpensive ground-based sensors that are capable of surveying large areas of the sky. Such sensors, which could potentially be rapidly deployed to areas of known UAP activity may play a key role in establishing so-called "pattern-of-activity" trends, as well as potentially the physical characteristics of UAP themselves.

FINDING
The standardization of collected information via well-crafted calibration will make it possible to carry out a rigorous scientific investigation into UAP. NASA's experience in this area will be vital.

Once more, however, robust data calibration is vital, and here NASA again can play an important advisory role. The calibration process ensures that information gathered from sensors and instruments is precise, dependable and devoid of any systematic errors or biases. In the case of UAP studies, where data often originates from instruments not specifically designed for detecting such objects, proper calibration becomes even more crucial. In turn, metadata, which provides contextual information such as sensor type, manufacturer details, noise characteristics and time of acquisition, must simultaneously be present for an accurate characterization of both a potential UAP as well as the sensor itself. Indeed, several apparent UAP have been demonstrated to be sensor artifacts once appropriate calibration and metadata scrutiny were applied. Although a substantial investment, the standardization of collected information via well-crafted calibration will make it possible to carry out a rigorous scientific investigation into UAP. NASA's experience in this area will be essential.

3 What other types of scientific data should be collected by NASA to enhance the potential for developing an understanding of the nature and origins of UAP?

FINDING
NASA should leverage its considerable expertise in this domain to potentially utilize multispectral or hyperspectral data as part of a rigorous campaign.

To improve our understanding of UAP, NASA should contribute to a comprehensive approach to collecting data within the broader whole-of-government framework to understand UAP. The importance of detecting UAP with multiple, well-calibrated sensors is paramount, and NASA should leverage its considerable expertise in this domain to potentially utilize multispectral or hyperspectral data as part of a rigorous campaign to acquire additional data on future UAP. In addition, forthcoming large-sky surveys enabled by Federal ground-based assets including the Vera C. Rubin Observatory will collect vast quantities of data, which can be directly used to search for anomalous objects beyond the Earth's atmosphere.

Data signatures are vast, and theories that predict novel signatures help guide our searches. It is imperative to set clear evidence thresholds to avoid errors, especially with automated methods. Furthermore, purpose-built future sensors for UAP detection should be designed to adjust on millisecond timescales to aid better detection. In lockstep, alert systems should detect and share transient information quickly and uniformly.

The panel notes that, at present, gathering data on UAP is hampered by sensor calibration challenges and a lack of sensor metadata. In short, calibration ensures that future data gathered are reliable and accurate, while gathering metadata–such as the time, location, and sensor observing modes–ensures that the contextual and environmental factors of a recorded UAP event are well known. Both, in turn, allow for systematic analyses of UAP events, and critically will enable the elimination of false positives due to sensor artifacts. Making a concerted effort to improve both aspects will be vital when gathering future data, and here NASA's expertise should be comprehensively leveraged as part of a robust and systematic data strategy within the whole-of-government framework.

FINDING
NASA's expertise should be comprehensively leveraged as part of a robust and systematic data strategy within the whole-of-government framework.

The panel also sees several advantages to augmenting potential data collection efforts using modern crowdsourcing techniques, including open-source smartphone-based apps that simultaneously gather imaging data and other smartphone sensor data from multiple citizen observers. NASA should therefore explore the viability of developing or acquiring such a crowdsourcing system as part of a future data strategy.

As stated above, NASA's fleet of Earth-observing satellites must also play a key role in collecting future data on environmental conditions coinciding with UAP sightings. Despite the mismatch in spatial resolution between the present generation of satellites and typical UAP events, by gathering and analyzing future satellite data, we will undoubtedly gain insights into the typical environmental factors associated with UAP. Future missions, such as the NOAA/NASA Geostationary Extended Observations (GeoXO) satellite system, will provide even more robust data that will prove important in UAP analysis. NASA should also leverage sensors that expand its observational reach, such as penetrating deeper into the ocean or at the air/sea interfaces.

Next, collection efforts from radio and optical astronomy that are designed for technosignature searches should be expanded from the Earth's atmosphere to the whole solar system. Additionally, near-Earth objects (NEO) programs also have significant data collections about phenomena close to Earth's atmosphere, which constitutes an untapped repository of data both for characterizing natural phenomena and anomalies. NASA should consider integrating these elements as part of a robust future-data strategy.

Finally, NASA's very involvement in gathering future data will play an important role in reducing stigma associated with UAP reporting, which very likely leads to data attrition at present. NASA's long-standing public trust, which is essential for communicating findings about these phenomena to citizens, is crucial for destigmatizing UAP reporting and scientific research. The scientific processes used by NASA encourage critical thinking; NASA can model for the public how to approach a topic, such as UAP, by applying transparent reporting and rigorous analyses when acquiring future data.

Middle East Object Footage taken by an MQ-9 of an apparent silver, orb-like object in the Middle East. Due to limited data, the object remains unidentified. The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.

4 Which scientific analysis techniques currently in production could be employed to assess the nature and origins of UAP? Which types of analysis techniques should be developed?

FINDING
AI and ML, combined with NASA's extensive expertise, should be utilized to investigate the nature and origins of UAP.

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have proven to be essential tools for identifying rare occurrences within vast datasets. These methodologies, combined with NASA's extensive experience and expertise, should be utilized to investigate the nature and origins of UAP by examining data from sources such as satellites and radar systems. However, the effectiveness of AI and ML in studying UAP depends critically upon the quality of the data used to train the AI and in subsequent analysis. At present, UAP analysis is more limited by the quality of data than by the availability of techniques. As a consequence, it is a higher priority to obtain better quality data than it is to develop new analysis techniques.

Once AARO and other agencies, including NASA, accumulate an extensive and well-curated catalog of baseline data, these can be used to train neural networks so that they can characterize deviations from normal. The panel finds that standard techniques that are routinely applied in astronomy, particle physics, and other areas of science can be adapted for these analyses.

When it comes to detecting anomalies–such as UAP–within datasets, there are two approaches. The first approach involves constructing a model that represents the expected signal characteristics then searching for any matches against this model. The second approach involves using a model of the background properties and searching for anything that deviates from that model. The panel notes that the first approach is difficult as we do not possess a consistent description of the physical characteristics of UAP. The second approach, on the other hand, requires an understanding of what is considered normal and known in a given search area, which can then be distinguished from what is unusual and unknown. AARO has already begun this task by studying what "normal" phenomena such as solar glint or balloons look like to military sensors. The program of systematically calibrating observations of "normal" is an essential step before starting to search for the abnormal.

A third potential avenue for scientific analysis is to cross-correlate NASA's extensive databases with the locations and times of reported UAP events. Once an extensive list of UAP reports is made available, the panel regards this as a promising method for future analysis. Again, NASA's expertise in AI and ML will allow it to make a prominent contribution.

FINDING
NASA, with its expertise in data calibration, management, and advanced analysis is well-positioned to take a central role in these efforts.

For any scientific analysis purposes, including UAP analysis, it is essential that the data used for AI and ML are collected according to rigorous standards. The data must be collected using calibrated instruments tailored to their respective use cases accompanied by metadata to facilitate calibration and contextual comprehension. Proper curation and integration of data are also critical for enabling scientific analysis. To establish a baseline understanding, an examination of known events with precisely calibrated instruments is also necessary. NASA, with its expertise in data calibration, management, and advanced analysis is well-positioned to take a central role in these efforts within the whole-of-government framework to assess UAP.

5 In considering the factors above, what basic physical constraints can be placed on the nature and origins of UAP?

Observations of UAP to date are inconsistent and do not adhere to similar characteristics. As a consequence, it is difficult to put physical constraints on them at present, which provides a strong motivation for the rigorous, evidence-based framework articulated in this report. The strongest physical constraints are not on the anomalous events but on the conventional events: we know the range of velocities and accelerations that can be achieved by state-of-the art platforms, drones, balloons and planes. Deviations from this behavior, such as any well-characterized observation of velocities and accelerations outside of that range, are scientifically interesting for UAP assessment and analysis. The panel emphasizes that clearly determining distances is key to understanding and corroborating any claimed anomalous high-velocity and high-acceleration events, a fact borne out by AARO's findings that the vast majority of UAP have prosaic explanations.

FINDING
The panel regards placing physical constraints on UAP, together with the suite of plausible natures and origins, as being within reach.

If the whole-of-government framework to understanding UAP–with NASA playing a crucial role–were to implement the preponderance of steps prescribed above, then the panel regards placing physical constraints on UAP, together with the suite of plausible natures and origins, as being within reach. If all unidentified events move at conventional speeds and accelerations, this likely points towards a conventional explanation for these events. Convincing evidence of verified anomalous accelerations and velocity would point towards potentially novel explanations for UAP.

6 What civilian airspace data related to UAPs have been collected by government agencies and are available for analysis to a) inform efforts to better understand the nature and origins of UAPs, and b) determine the risk of UAPs to the National Air Space (NAS)?

FINDING
With its world-leading expertise in data curation and organization, NASA is well-positioned to advise on the best methodologies for establishing repositories of civilian airspace data.

Government agencies, including the FAA, gather civilian airspace data that can be analyzed to probe for UAP. These data include information obtained from air traffic control towers and radar systems. However it is essential to note that such data are not always optimized or suitable for rigorous scientific analysis of UAP. The observations almost always happen incidentally using instruments not specifically designed for detecting objects; furthermore, crucial contextual information in the form of metadata is often missing. Although civilian airspace data has been used by AARO to assist with the analysis of isolated UAP cases, the broad corpus of such data is unlikely to yield a global understanding of the size, movement, or nature of UAP.

Furthermore, at present, there is no standardized Federal system for making civilian UAP reports. While AARO is establishing a systematic mechanism for military and intelligence community UAP reports, current FAA guidelines instruct citizens wanting to report UAP to contact local law enforcement or one or more non-governmental organizations. As a result, the collection of data is sparse, unsystematic, and lacks any curation or vetting protocols.

Here, once more, NASA can provide important assistance to the whole-of-government effort to understand UAP. With its world-leading expertise in data curation and organization, NASA is well-positioned to advise on the best methodologies for establishing repositories of civilian airspace data.

7 What current reporting protocols and air traffic management (ATM) data acquisition systems can be modified to acquire additional data on past and future UAPs?

FINDING
Leveraging the Aviation Safety Reporting System for commercial pilot UAP reporting would provide a critical database.

It is clear to the panel that establishing a more robust and systematic framework and data repository for UAP reporting is essential. This particularly applies to civilian reporting of UAP: current FAA guidelines suggest that citizens wanting to report UAP contact their local law enforcement or one or more non-governmental organizations, which is inadequate for drawing scientific inferences. Although such eyewitness reports are often interesting and compelling, they are insufficient on their own for making definitive conclusions about UAP. Thus, their effective corroboration within a robust reporting and follow-up framework based on systematically gathered data (including the ATM system) can provide a useful tool for understanding UAP.

A particularly promising avenue for deeper integration within a systematic, evidenced-based framework for is the NASA's Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS), which NASA administers for the FAA. This system is a confidential, voluntary, non-punitive reporting system that receives safety reports from pilots, air traffic controllers, dispatchers, cabin crew, ground operators, maintenance technicians, and UAS operators that provides a unique data source for emerging UAS safety issues. ASRS receives reports describing close-calls, hazards, violations, and safety-related incidents. With 47 years of confidential safety reporting, ASRS has received more than 1,940,000 reports, averaging approximately 100,000 per year. Reports are received from all aspects of aviation operations. Although the system resides at NASA Ames and involves NASA employees, the ASRS program is solely funded by FAA and it is not part of NASA's Aeronautics activity. Although not initially designed for UAP collection, leveraging this system for commercial pilot UAP reporting would provide a critical database that would be valuable for the whole-of-government effort to understand UAP, and here NASA should provide technical assistance.

South Asian Object (Image 2) Footage taken by an MQ-9 of an unidentified object in South Asia with an apparent atmospheric wake or cavitation, later assessed as a likely commercial aircraft by the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office. The cavitation is likely a sensor artifact resulting from video compression. The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.

 

8 What potential enhancements to future ATM development efforts can be recommended to acquire data concerning future reported UAPs to assist in the effort to better understand the nature and origin of the UAPs?

FINDING
NASA's strong partnership with the FAA will be pivotal to designing future air traffic management systems to acquire UAP data.

NASA's deep experience in researching and developing air traffic management tools, together with its strong partnership with the FAA, will be pivotal to designing future ATM systems to acquire UAP data. At present, surveillance instruments are not designed to detect anomalous objects, and associated metadata are often absent. NASA should begin by developing new concepts and ideas for ATM systems, which enable these systems to assist in the effort to better understand UAP.

NASA should leverage its expertise by reviewing and demonstrating passive sensing techniques. NASA should also consider platforms that include new types of data such as imaging data and even multispectral or hyperspectral data. In turn, NASA could conduct research to see whether machine learning algorithms could be incorporated into future ATM systems to detect and analyze UAP in real-time. This research would represent a complex undertaking whose outcome could allow for substantial and systematic gathering UAP data as well as a robust characterization of the background. Once again, NASA's experience and expertise in these areas would allow it to provide critical assistance in identifying and evaluating new safety systems.

This NASA Space Shuttle STS-100 image captures naturally occuring von Karman vortices forming in clouds near Rishiri-to island in Japan, caused by a stable, low-cloud atmosphere flowing over a tall obstacle.