This paper does not represent US Government views.
Three of the key areas that the Russians expect to produce new gas will keenly feel the effects of a changing climate by 2030. First, the Yamal peninsula is an Arctic region that is a vast wealth of untapped gas prospects. According to some Gazprom projections, it could account for as much as 200 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas production per year by 2020, and 360 bcm per year by 2030.lxxii However, developing Yamal will be significantly complicated by a changing climate. Supplies that will need to be brought in by land will require the construction of new roads and rail links, which will be tricky with the growth of thermokarst. Previous techniques, like the use of seasonal ice roads will be more problematic due to the shorter cold season. New above-ground pipelines and other elevated installations will have to be constructed using deeper foundations to avoid structural damage from subsidence.
A second key area for new Russian gas production is the Barents Sea. Here, one massive new field called Shtokman is to be developed some 550 kilometers north of the Kola Peninsula, with a projected annual production of around 90 bcm of gas.lxxiii This hugely challenging technical undertaking, which will require the construction of ice-capable production platforms in more than 300 meters of water, is especially difficult because it is so far offshore that it is beyond the range of helicopters, yet it is vulnerable to seasonal pack ice and vicious storms. In the face of a rapidly changing Arctic climate, vessels traveling to Shtokman will have to navigate increasingly severe waters and endure bitter winter storms.
A third key projected area for the Russian gas industry is Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East. Here too, climate change in the period to 2030 will pose increasing complications—melting permafrost, swollen rivers, more frequent and severe storms and more prevalent incidence of traditionally atypical forms of disease. As mentioned above, the Russian gas industry has traditionally been oriented toward customers within Russia and in neighboring European countries. However, in the past decade, Gazprom and the Russian government have identified the goal of moving to the East and developing gas resources that can feed to the Pacific Rim. The official Eastern Gas Program released in August 2007 projects total extraction of 100 bcm/year by 2030.lxxiv New fields are being developed in the Sea of Okhotsk, near Sakhalin Island. Other prospects are being pursued as far west as the area to the north of Lake Baikal (e.g., the Kovykta field) and in the Sakha Republic (Yakutia). All of these projects will require major new construction with countless major and minor river crossings and a significant number of permafrost operations. This development will therefore be vulnerable to the same kinds of challenges from climate impacts as have been discussed above.
Food Production and Drinking Water Supply
Russia will experience a mix of positive and negative impacts on food and water supply in the period to 2030. The net impacts in these important areas will depend heavily on the extent to which adaptation measures can be implemented in an affordable and timely manner, but doing so will be difficult.
Experts project that Russia will experience an increase in total water supply in the period to 2030. According to Roshydromet, in the aggregate Russia will experience an 8-10 percent increase in water volume by 2015⎯the equivalent of a 12-14 percent increase per capita⎯with these trends expected to continue in the years that follow.
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This paper does not represent US Government views.
