This paper does not represent US Government views.
That said, different regions will experience significantly different changes in their respective water supply. The northern and northwestern portions of European Russia, as well as the central Volga, many of the non-Chernozem lands, the Urals, and the Russian Far East will experience increasing water availability. In the dams along the Volga-Kamsk Cascade, water flows are projected to increase by 10-20 percent by 2015, as mentioned above. In the Northwest federal district, dams will see a 5-10 percent increase over the same period. And some of the key Siberian rivers systems⎯the AngarskYenisey, the Vilyu, the Kolyma, and the Zeya⎯will experience flow increases by up to 15 percent.lxxv
On the other hand, many other parts of Russia will experience worsening water shortages, including densely populated industrial regions that are projected to experience increases in water demand of 5-25 percent.lxxvi In the Chernozem lands, these water-poor areas will include the Belgorod, Voronezh, Kursk, Lipetsk, Orel, and Tambov regions. In the south, Kalmykia, Krasnodar, Stavropol, and Rostov regions will face increasingly challenging water situations, with reductions in water supply on the order of 5-15 percent.lxxvii In southwestern Siberia, the list will include Altay, Kemerovo, Novosibirsk, Omsk, and Tomsk. Across a key southern belt, a whole host of Russian regions will face mounting, and serious, water problems. Included in this list will be both certain key agricultural lands (more on food supply below), and also a number of key industrial regions. Even the capital and the Moscow Oblast’ will face “particularly acute” water supply problems.lxxviii
Regarding food supply, the longstanding popular presumption in Russia has been that a warmer global climate would translate into a significantly more hospitable Russian environment for agricultural production. Indeed, there are several respects in which climate change by 2030 will reduce longstanding challenges for Russian agriculture. First and foremost, growing seasons have already become longer and are predicted to become longer still.lxxix
Accompanying this change will be a reduction in the frequency of winter temperatures that are sufficiently bitter to damage winter plantings. More sensitive varieties of winter plantings will be possible in much of Russia by 2030, and it will be possible to plant existing varieties farther north than would have been the case in the past.lxxx For example, it will be possible to plant longer-ripening grains and late-ripening sugar beets as far north as Moscow.lxxxi Interestingly, the longer growing seasons will not be accompanied by an increased frost-free period except in the Northwestern, Central, and Volga federal districts.lxxxii
Based on temperature ranges expected by 2030, it will also be possible to introduce entirely new crops that are not widely grown in Russia today. For example, the projected temperature of the north Caucasus and the lower Volga will be well suited to intensive agriculture for crops that are typically found in Central Asia and the south Caucasus at present⎯crops such as cotton, grapes, tea, citrus, and other fruits and vegetables.lxxxiii
A key question, however, is whether the longer growing seasons and the warmer Russian agricultural lands will result in increased yields. In fact, this does not appear to be assured—at least not based on the crops that are currently raised. Many of the current “bread basket” areas of Russia⎯including the Black Earth or Chernozem lands, the
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This paper does not represent US Government views.
