This paper does not represent US Government views.
lower Volga region, and the southern part of Siberia⎯will experience reductions in grain yields resulting from reduced precipitation⎯reductions in yields of more than 22 percent by 2020. Warmer average temperatures will produce better grain yields in some parts of the country that have not traditionally served as the heartland for grain production. Regions such as the Northwest and Central federal districts and the Volga-Vyatsk region are expected to see a 10-15 percent increment in grain yields. Nationwide, according to Roshydromet, grain yields could shrink by more than 11 percent by 2020.lxxxiv
Plant diseases and pests will become a more serious challenge in many parts of Russia. In the southern part of European Russia and in western Siberia, locusts are expected to be increasingly common. Already they are found more frequently than was the case two or three decades ago, and they are expected to be even more prevalent in the future in the Stavropol, Kalmykia, Volgograd, Astrakhan, Saratov, and Rostov regions, and in some parts of southern Siberia.lxxxv In northwestern Russia, farmers are experiencing an infestation of Colorado potato beetles, which are now found in Karelia. In coming years, as mild winters become increasingly common, they are expected to spread into southern parts of the Arkhangelsk region and the Komi Republic.lxxxvi
A third question that arises about future agriculture is whether human management and distribution systems, and rural society itself, will be able to adapt in a timely manner to manage new crops, new supply chains, and requirements. Indeed, rural Russia has typically been resistant to change. In addition, supply, distribution, and management issues have historically posed great hurdles for Russian agriculture. A key question will be whether a true national market for food and agricultural products develops, or whether Russian regions persist in semi-national, semi-intra-region forms of agricultural trade.lxxxvii
Additional challenges for agriculture by 2030 will come from the increased frequency of severe weather events. Periods of drought in key agricultural regions are expected to be 50-100 percent more frequent by 2015, with the trend line continuing thereafter.lxxxviii
By 2030, Russia will start to feel the impacts of climate change in relation to both water and food supply. To maintain stable food supply, significant changes will be required in terms of varieties that are planted, the lands that are used for agriculture, and the extent and intensity of pesticide and irrigation use. All of these solutions are theoretically possible, but none will come easily or inexpensively. All will test the ability of Russian authorities and Russian agriculture to adapt quickly as climate change impacts are felt.
Transportation Systems
Transportation systems are another aspect of Russia’s socioeconomic life that will experience major impacts from climate change by 2030. For the most part, these impacts will entail the need for significant adaptations, which will imply significant capital requirements. This will be true for Russia’s extensive rail networks as well as its more limited road networks. However, in relation to river transportation and especially Far North maritime transport, a changing climate will open new and likely beneficial possibilities.
Russia’s railways are the backbone of its goods and passenger transportation system, with over 87,000 kilometers of railroads stretching across most of the country.lxxxix The
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This paper does not represent US Government views.
